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Eredivisie
Referee: E van de Graaf
Almere City
S T T S U
1–1
Full-time
VVV Venlo
S T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Almere City VVV Venlo
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
2,8
3,8
Scored
1,0
1,7
Conceded
1,8
2,2
Goal diff per game
-0,8
-0,5
This season — Eredivisie · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 84%
67%
100%
Average goals
2,3
3,7
Scored
1,3
2,0
Conceded
1,0
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

58% Possession 42%
45 Shots 10
7 Shots on target 5
16 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 7
16 Corners 3
2 Offside 2
16 Free kicks against 12
4 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Feyenoord 34 25 7 2 +51 82
2 PSV Eindhoven 34 23 6 5 +49 75
3 Ajax 34 20 9 5 +48 69
4 AZ Alkmaar 34 20 7 7 +33 67
5 Twente 31 19 7 5 +41 64
6 Sparta Rotterdam 31 18 6 7 +29 60
7 Utrecht 33 13 9 11 -1 48
8 Heerenveen 33 11 9 13 -8 42
9 Waalwijk 34 11 8 15 -14 41
10 Vitesse 34 10 10 14 -5 40
11 Go Ahead Eagles 34 10 10 14 -10 40
12 Nijmegen 34 8 15 11 -3 39
13 For Sittard 34 10 6 18 -23 36
14 Volendam 34 10 6 18 -29 36
15 Excelsior 34 9 5 20 -39 32
16 FC Emmen 35 7 10 18 -31 31
17 Cambuur 34 5 4 25 -43 19
18 Groningen 34 4 6 24 -44 18

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Almere City VVV Venlo
Lance Duijvestijn 🟨
42′
Half-time 0–0
46′
🔁 S. Allouch
↦ D. Huisman
1–0 L. Duijvestijn
50′
Hamdi Akujobi 🟨
55′
57′
🔁 C. Johansson
↦ R. Klaasen
62′
🟨 Soulyman Allouch
62′
S. Allouch 1–1
K. de Boer
I. Alhaft 🔁
↦ Pascu
65′
S. Resink 🔁
↦ J. Smeets
75′
R. van La Parra 🔁
↦ A. Limbombe
75′
82′
🟨 Carl Johansson
88′
🔁 Ö. Yaşar
↦ S. Braken
Theo Barbet 🟨
89′
T. Poll 🔁
↦ T. Barbet
92′
93′
🔁 R. Lathouwers
↦ T. Dekker
105′
🔁 K. Kristinsson
↦ C. Johansson
Damian van Bruggen 🟨
109′
113′
🟨 Rick Ketting
J. Ritmeester van de Kamp 🔁
↦ J. Hilterman
120′
R. van La Parra
penalty missed
121′
122′
N. Venema
penalty missed
I. Alhaft
penalty missed
123′
124′
S. Allouch
penalty missed
2–1 L. Duijvestijn
125′
126′
B. Koglin
penalty missed
3–1 Álvaro Peña
127′
128′
K. de Boer
penalty missed
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Almere City

4-2-3-1
1 N. Bakker G
20 H. Akujobi D
3 J. Jacobs D
4 D. van Bruggen D
22 T. Barbet D
18 Álvaro Peña M
25 J. Smeets M
14 Pascu M
10 L. Duijvestijn M
7 A. Limbombe M
9 J. Hilterman F
Bench (12)
11 I. Alhaft
28 S. Resink
27 R. van La Parra
5 T. Poll
39 J. Ritmeester van de Kamp
36 M. Esajas
35 T. Noslin
26 S. Keller
37 L. Kromah
32 J. Puriël
40 A. Etemadi
46 J. Guiting

Coach: A. Pastoor

VVV Venlo

4-4-2
1 E. van der Gouw G
17 T. Dekker D
4 R. Ketting D
2 B. Koglin D
5 S. Janssen D
8 K. de Boer M
6 M. van Rooijen M
16 R. Klaasen M
23 D. Huisman M
10 N. Venema F
9 S. Braken F
Bench (12)
34 S. Allouch
7 C. Johansson
29 Ö. Yaşar
18 R. Lathouwers
21 K. Kristinsson
3 S. Dirks
30 J. Craenmehr
38 L. Zima
12 J. Kluskens
24 B. Bartu
33 M. Thier
25 S. Henderikx

Coach: R. Kruijs

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

E van de Graaf · 83 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
17,9 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.