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Primeira Liga
Referee: Helder Malheiro
2–2
Full-time
Estoril
T U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitoria Setubal Estoril
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 9%
0%
17%
Points per game
0,0
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
3,8
2,0
Scored
0,5
0,7
Conceded
3,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
-2,8
-0,7
This season — Primeira Liga · 15/15 matches
Win Ø 17%
13%
20%
Points per game
0,7
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
40%
60%
Both score Ø 43%
53%
33%
Average goals
2,8
2,9
Scored
0,9
0,8
Conceded
1,9
2,1
Goal diff per game
-1,1
-1,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

36% Possession 64%
12 Shots 15
4 Shots on target 5
3 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
8 Corners 4
3 Offside 2
29 Free kicks against 21
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Vitoria Setubal 18. · Estoril 17.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 16 13 3 0 +34 42
2 Sp Lisbon 16 12 4 0 +23 40
3 Benfica 16 11 4 1 +27 37
4 Sp Braga 16 11 1 4 +18 34
5 Rio Ave 16 8 3 5 +7 27
6 Maritimo 16 8 3 5 +2 27
7 Guimaraes 16 7 2 7 -6 23
8 Chaves 16 6 4 6 -2 22
9 Boavista 16 6 2 8 -4 20
10 Tondela 16 5 3 8 -7 18
11 Belenenses 15 5 2 8 -8 17
12 Portimonense 15 4 4 7 -4 16
13 Feirense 16 4 2 10 -8 14
14 Moreirense 16 3 5 8 -12 14
15 Aves 16 3 4 9 -10 13
16 Pacos Ferreira 16 3 4 9 -15 13
17 Estoril 15 3 2 10 -19 11
18 Vitoria Setubal 15 2 4 9 -16 10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Vitoria Setubal Estoril
45′
🟨 Joel
Half-time 0–0
56′
🔁 Pedro Rodrigues
↦ André Claro
André Sousa 🟨
58′
Tomás Podstawski 🔁
↦ André Sousa
61′
1–0 Gonçalo Paciência
63′
Willyan 🔁
↦ André Pedrosa
71′
72′
🔁 Abner Felipe
↦ Joel
2–0 Gonçalo Paciência
João Amaral
74′
81′
Kléber 2–1
Abner Felipe
82′
🟨 Lucão
Gonçalo Paciência 🟨
83′
Edinho 🔁
↦ Gonçalo Paciência
84′
87′
C. Kyriakou 2–2
94′
🔁 Aylton Boa Morte
↦ Victor Andrade
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Vitoria Setubal

4-4-1-1
1 Cristiano G
21 Nuno Pinto D
5 César D
14 Pedro Pinto D
16 André Sousa M
10 João Teixeira M
27 André Pedrosa M
9 Gonçalo Paciência F
11 Costinha M
7 A. Issoko D
24 João Amaral M
Bench (7)
6 Tomás Podstawski
28 Willyan
36 Edinho
17 Rafinha
33 Allef
42 Luís Felipe
88 Pedro Trigueira

Coach: José Couceiro

Estoril

4-4-2
31 Moreira G
5 Joel D
25 C. Kyriakou D
3 Lucão D
4 Pedro Monteiro D
17 Lucas Evangelista M
23 Wesley D
10 Kléber F
22 André Claro F
33 Victor Andrade M
11 Allano M
Bench (7)
88 Pedro Rodrigues
30 Abner Felipe
70 Aylton Boa Morte
1 Thierry Graça
9 Bruno Gomes
14 Gustavo Tocantins
20 Matheus Índio

Coach: Filipe Pedro

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Helder Malheiro · 143 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
31,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,32 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.