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Primeira Liga

Referee: Joao Carlos Santos Capela

Chaves

S U S U S

1–1

Full-time

Aves

U S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chaves Aves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 29%

38%

19%

Points per game

1,4

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

38%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

44%

56%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,2

0,9

Conceded

1,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

73% Possession 27%

14 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 0

1 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 19

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chaves 8. · Aves 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	16	13	3	0	+34	42
2	Sp Lisbon	16	12	4	0	+23	40
3	Benfica	16	11	4	1	+27	37
4	Sp Braga	17	12	1	4	+19	37
5	Rio Ave	17	8	3	6	+6	27
6	Maritimo	16	8	3	5	+2	27
7	Guimaraes	16	7	2	7	-6	23
8	Chaves	16	6	4	6	-2	22
9	Boavista	16	6	2	8	-4	20
10	Tondela	16	5	3	8	-7	18
11	Belenenses	16	5	3	8	-8	18
12	Portimonense	16	4	5	7	-4	17
13	Feirense	16	4	2	10	-8	14
14	Moreirense	16	3	5	8	-12	14
15	Aves	16	3	4	9	-10	13
16	Pacos Ferreira	16	3	4	9	-15	13
17	Estoril	16	3	3	10	-19	12
18	Vitoria Setubal	16	2	5	9	-16	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	9	8	0	1	+18	24
2	Porto	8	7	1	0	+22	22
3	Benfica	8	7	1	0	+19	22
4	Sp Lisbon	8	6	2	0	+11	20
5	Maritimo	9	6	2	1	+6	20
6	Rio Ave	9	5	1	3	+4	16
7	Portimonense	8	4	2	2	+5	14
8	Belenenses	7	4	2	1	+5	14
9	Guimaraes	8	4	1	3	-4	13
10	Boavista	8	4	0	4	-4	12
11	Pacos Ferreira	7	3	2	2	+1	11
12	Vitoria Setubal	9	2	4	3	-3	10
13	Feirense	9	3	1	5	-4	10
14	Chaves	7	2	3	2	+2	9
15	Moreirense	7	1	4	2	-3	7
16	Estoril	7	2	1	4	-5	7
17	Tondela	8	2	1	5	-6	7
18	Aves	9	1	2	6	-9	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	8	6	2	0	+12	20
2	Porto	8	6	2	0	+12	20
3	Benfica	8	4	3	1	+8	15
4	Sp Braga	8	4	1	3	+1	13
5	Chaves	9	4	1	4	-4	13
6	Rio Ave	8	3	2	3	+2	11
7	Tondela	8	3	2	3	-1	11
8	Guimaraes	8	3	1	4	-2	10
9	Boavista	8	2	2	4	+0	8
10	Aves	7	2	2	3	-1	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	1	4	-4	7
12	Moreirense	9	2	1	6	-9	7
13	Estoril	9	1	2	6	-14	5
14	Feirense	7	1	1	5	-4	4
15	Belenenses	9	1	1	7	-13	4
16	Portimonense	8	0	3	5	-9	3
17	Pacos Ferreira	9	0	2	7	-16	2
18	Vitoria Setubal	7	0	1	6	-13	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.