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Eredivisie
Referee: Jeroen Manschot
Heracles
T U S S T
2–0
Full-time
Nijmegen
U U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heracles Nijmegen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,3
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 92%
100%
83%
Average goals
3,7
3,2
Scored
1,5
1,2
Conceded
2,2
2,0
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-0,8
This season — Eredivisie · 14/14 matches
Win Ø 21%
21%
21%
Points per game
1,1
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 47%
50%
43%
Both score Ø 68%
79%
57%
Average goals
2,8
2,6
Scored
1,1
0,9
Conceded
1,6
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-0,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

47% Possession 53%
15 Shots 16
6 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
5 Corners 4
3 Offside 3
11 Free kicks against 15
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Heracles 10. · Nijmegen 11.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Feyenoord 14 10 3 1 +24 33
2 Ajax 14 10 3 1 +21 33
3 PSV Eindhoven 14 8 5 1 +16 29
4 Heerenveen 13 6 4 3 +10 22
5 AZ Alkmaar 12 5 6 1 +10 21
6 Twente 14 5 5 4 +3 20
7 Utrecht 12 4 5 3 +1 17
8 Vitesse 14 4 5 5 +1 17
9 Sparta Rotterdam 14 4 5 5 +0 17
10 Heracles 14 3 6 5 -7 15
11 Nijmegen 14 3 6 5 -11 15
12 Excelsior 14 4 2 8 -8 14
13 Willem II 14 3 5 6 -8 14
14 Den Haag 14 4 2 8 -9 14
15 Groningen 13 3 4 6 -4 13
16 Zwolle 14 3 4 7 -16 13
17 Roda 14 1 8 5 -11 11
18 Go Ahead Eagles 14 3 2 9 -12 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Heracles Nijmegen
1–0 L. Duarte
R. Pröpper
37′
Half-time 1–0
Thomas Bruns 🟨
49′
56′
🔁 F. Kadioglu
↦ K. Mayi
J. Navrátil 🔁
↦ B. Kuwas
61′
70′
🔁 A. Groeneveld
↦ J. Grot
80′
🔁 T. Awoniyi
↦ Janio Bikel
2–0 S. Armenteros
J. Navrátil
83′
R. Niemeijer 🔁
↦ L. Duarte
88′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Heracles

4-3-3
1 B. Castro G
2 T. Breukers D
4 R. Pröpper D
27 J. Hoogma D
8 L. Duarte M
10 T. Bruns M
14 J. Pelupessy M
21 R. Gosens M
9 S. Armenteros F
7 B. Darri F
17 B. Kuwas F
Bench (9)
15 J. Navrátil
29 R. Niemeijer
3 M. te Wierik
11 T. Kada
12 W. Droste
19 V. Vermeij
22 D. van Mieghem
25 R. Fij
28 M. Brouwer

Coach: J. Stegeman

Nijmegen

4-3-3
1 J. Delle G
6 M. Dyrestam D
3 D. Dumić D
24 A. Fomitschow D
4 W. Golla D
34 G. Breinburg M
19 J. von Haacke M
8 Janio Bikel M
18 K. Mayi F
20 M. Rayhi F
17 J. Grot F
Bench (9)
16 F. Kadioglu
47 A. Groeneveld
9 T. Awoniyi
2 M. Heinloth
10 S. Mauk
15 R. Buwalda
22 J. Smits
23 M. van Duin
27 F. Gmeiner

Coach: P. Hyballa

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Jeroen Manschot · 94 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
18,1 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.