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Serie A

Referee: Gianluca Rocchi

Atalanta

T S S U S

4–1

Full-time

Bologna

T T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Bologna

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

This season — Serie A · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 35%

48%

21%

Points per game

1,7

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

69%

48%

Both score Ø 55%

62%

48%

Average goals

3,4

2,4

Scored

2,1

0,9

Conceded

1,4

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–0

51% Possession 49%

20 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 5. · Bologna 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	30	26	3	1	+43	81
2	Napoli	30	19	6	5	+31	63
3	Inter	30	17	5	8	+22	56
4	Milan	30	14	10	6	+16	52
5	Atalanta	29	14	6	9	+20	48
6	Lazio	29	14	6	9	+12	48
7	Torino	30	12	12	6	+12	48
8	Roma	30	13	9	8	+10	48
9	Sampdoria	30	13	6	11	+11	45
10	Fiorentina	30	8	15	7	+8	39
11	Sassuolo	30	8	11	11	-5	35
12	Genoa	30	8	9	13	-14	33
13	Cagliari	30	8	9	13	-14	33
14	Parma	30	9	6	15	-17	33
15	Spal	30	8	8	14	-15	32
16	Udinese	29	7	8	14	-14	29
17	Empoli	30	7	7	16	-18	28
18	Bologna	29	6	9	14	-16	27
19	Frosinone	30	4	8	18	-32	20
20	Chievo	30	1	11	18	-40	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	15	13	2	0	+24	41
2	Napoli	15	11	3	1	+22	36
3	Milan	16	9	4	3	+10	31
4	Inter	14	9	2	3	+14	29
5	Roma	15	8	5	2	+10	29
6	Torino	15	9	1	5	+8	28
7	Lazio	14	8	3	3	+12	27
8	Sampdoria	14	8	2	4	+11	26
9	Cagliari	15	6	6	3	+3	24
10	Empoli	16	7	3	6	+1	24
11	Genoa	16	6	6	4	+0	24
12	Fiorentina	14	5	7	2	+9	22
13	Atalanta	14	6	4	4	+9	22
14	Sassuolo	16	5	7	4	+0	22
15	Udinese	15	6	3	6	-2	21
16	Spal	15	4	6	5	-5	18
17	Bologna	14	4	4	6	-6	16
18	Parma	15	4	4	7	-8	16
19	Chievo	15	1	5	9	-17	8
20	Frosinone	15	1	5	9	-18	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	15	13	1	1	+19	40
2	Napoli	15	8	3	4	+9	27
3	Inter	16	8	3	5	+8	27
4	Atalanta	15	8	2	5	+11	26
5	Milan	14	5	6	3	+6	21
6	Lazio	15	6	3	6	+0	21
7	Torino	15	3	11	1	+4	20
8	Sampdoria	16	5	4	7	+0	19
9	Roma	15	5	4	6	+0	19
10	Fiorentina	16	3	8	5	-1	17
11	Parma	15	5	2	8	-9	17
12	Spal	15	4	2	9	-10	14
13	Sassuolo	14	3	4	7	-5	13
14	Frosinone	15	3	3	9	-14	12
15	Bologna	15	2	5	8	-10	11
16	Genoa	14	2	3	9	-14	9
17	Cagliari	15	2	3	10	-17	9
18	Udinese	14	1	5	8	-12	8
19	Chievo	15	0	6	9	-23	6
20	Empoli	14	0	4	10	-19	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.