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Serie A

Referee: Claudio Gavillucci

Fiorentina

U U T U S

1–1

Full-time

Crotone

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Crotone

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,5

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,2

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,5

This season — Serie A · 8/9 matches

Win Ø 19%

38%

Points per game

1,5

0,1

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

50%

78%

Both score Ø 64%

50%

78%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,4

0,8

Conceded

1,1

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

74% Possession 26%

26 Shots 4

11 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 11

14 Corners 1

3 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 12. · Crotone 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	9	7	0	2	+11	21
2	Roma	9	6	1	2	+12	19
3	Milan	10	6	1	3	+2	19
4	Napoli	9	5	2	2	+7	17
5	Torino	9	4	3	2	+8	15
6	Lazio	9	4	3	2	+6	15
7	Genoa	9	4	3	2	+5	15
8	Chievo	9	4	2	3	+1	14
9	Atalanta	9	4	1	4	-1	13
10	Sassuolo	9	4	1	4	-2	13
11	Cagliari	9	4	1	4	-3	13
12	Fiorentina	8	3	3	2	+2	12
13	Bologna	9	3	3	3	-3	12
14	Inter	9	3	2	4	-1	11
15	Sampdoria	9	3	2	4	-2	11
16	Udinese	9	3	1	5	-5	10
17	Pescara	9	1	4	4	-5	7
18	Empoli	9	1	3	5	-9	6
19	Palermo	9	1	3	5	-10	6
20	Crotone	9	0	1	8	-13	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Roma	5	5	0	0	+13	15
2	Juventus	4	4	0	0	+8	12
3	Milan	5	4	0	1	+4	12
4	Torino	5	3	2	0	+7	11
5	Cagliari	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Bologna	5	3	1	1	+3	10
7	Genoa	5	2	3	0	+5	9
8	Napoli	4	3	0	1	+4	9
9	Atalanta	5	3	0	2	+1	9
10	Sassuolo	4	3	0	1	+1	9
11	Fiorentina	4	2	2	0	+2	8
12	Lazio	4	2	1	1	+4	7
13	Chievo	4	2	1	1	+1	7
14	Sampdoria	4	2	1	1	+1	7
15	Udinese	5	2	1	2	+0	7
16	Inter	4	1	2	1	+0	5
17	Empoli	5	1	1	3	-5	4
18	Pescara	5	0	3	2	-3	3
19	Crotone	4	0	1	3	-5	1
20	Palermo	4	0	0	4	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	5	3	0	2	+3	9
2	Napoli	5	2	2	1	+3	8
3	Lazio	5	2	2	1	+2	8
4	Chievo	5	2	1	2	+0	7
5	Milan	5	2	1	2	-2	7
6	Genoa	4	2	0	2	+0	6
7	Inter	5	2	0	3	-1	6
8	Palermo	5	1	3	1	-2	6
9	Torino	4	1	1	2	+1	4
10	Fiorentina	4	1	1	2	+0	4
11	Roma	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	Pescara	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	Atalanta	4	1	1	2	-2	4
14	Sassuolo	5	1	1	3	-3	4
15	Sampdoria	5	1	1	3	-3	4
16	Udinese	4	1	0	3	-5	3
17	Cagliari	4	1	0	3	-6	3
18	Empoli	4	0	2	2	-4	2
19	Bologna	4	0	2	2	-6	2
20	Crotone	5	0	0	5	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.