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Serie A

Referee: Gianluca Rocchi

Crotone

T T T U T

1–3

Full-time

Atalanta

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Crotone Atalanta

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 72%

60%

83%

Both score Ø 64%

60%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

0,6

1,3

Conceded

2,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,6

-0,7

This season — Serie A · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 10%

20%

Points per game

0,2

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

60%

80%

Both score Ø 60%

60%

Average goals

2,8

3,4

Scored

0,6

1,2

Conceded

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,6

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

55% Possession 45%

12 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 0

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

21 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Crotone 20. · Atalanta 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	6	5	0	1	+8	15
2	Napoli	6	4	2	0	+9	14
3	Inter	6	3	2	1	+2	11
4	Roma	6	3	1	2	+6	10
5	Lazio	6	3	1	2	+3	10
6	Milan	6	3	1	2	+1	10
7	Chievo	6	3	1	2	+1	10
8	Bologna	6	3	1	2	-2	10
9	Sassuolo	6	3	0	3	-2	9
10	Torino	6	2	2	2	+4	8
11	Genoa	5	2	2	1	+2	8
12	Fiorentina	5	2	2	1	+1	8
13	Udinese	6	2	1	3	-3	7
14	Pescara	6	1	3	2	-1	6
15	Sampdoria	5	2	0	3	-2	6
16	Palermo	6	1	2	3	-4	5
17	Cagliari	5	1	1	3	-4	4
18	Empoli	6	1	1	4	-6	4
19	Atalanta	5	1	0	4	-5	3
20	Crotone	5	0	1	4	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Roma	3	3	0	0	+9	9
2	Juventus	3	3	0	0	+7	9
3	Napoli	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Bologna	3	3	0	0	+4	9
5	Torino	3	2	1	0	+6	7
6	Chievo	3	2	1	0	+3	7
7	Fiorentina	3	2	1	0	+2	7
8	Lazio	3	2	0	1	+4	6
9	Milan	3	2	0	1	+2	6
10	Sassuolo	3	2	0	1	+0	6
11	Genoa	3	1	2	0	+2	5
12	Inter	3	1	2	0	+1	5
13	Cagliari	2	1	1	0	+3	4
14	Udinese	3	1	1	1	+1	4
15	Sampdoria	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Atalanta	3	1	0	2	-1	3
17	Empoli	3	1	0	2	-2	3
18	Pescara	3	0	2	1	-1	2
19	Crotone	2	0	1	1	-2	1
20	Palermo	3	0	0	3	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	3	2	0	1	+1	6
2	Juventus	3	2	0	1	+1	6
3	Napoli	3	1	2	0	+3	5
4	Palermo	3	1	2	0	+1	5
5	Pescara	3	1	1	1	+0	4
6	Lazio	3	1	1	1	-1	4
7	Milan	3	1	1	1	-1	4
8	Genoa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Sassuolo	3	1	0	2	-2	3
10	Sampdoria	3	1	0	2	-2	3
11	Chievo	3	1	0	2	-2	3
12	Udinese	3	1	0	2	-4	3
13	Fiorentina	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Torino	3	0	1	2	-2	1
15	Roma	3	0	1	2	-3	1
16	Empoli	3	0	1	2	-4	1
17	Bologna	3	0	1	2	-6	1
18	Atalanta	2	0	0	2	-4	0
19	Crotone	3	0	0	3	-6	0
20	Cagliari	3	0	0	3	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.