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Bundesliga

Referee: Daniel Siebert

Dortmund

T S S S T

1–0

Full-time

FC Ingolstadt 04

T S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund FC Ingolstadt 04

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,5

3,0

Scored

2,5

1,0

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-1,0

This season — Bundesliga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 36%

50%

21%

Points per game

1,8

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

63%

42%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,7

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

1,1

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,8

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

54% Possession 46%

10 Shots 14

2 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 2

1 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 23

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 3. · FC Ingolstadt 04 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	24	18	5	1	+47	59
2	RB Leipzig	24	15	4	5	+18	49
3	Dortmund	24	12	7	5	+26	43
4	Hoffenheim	24	10	12	2	+20	42
5	Hertha	24	12	4	8	+6	40
6	Ein Frankfurt	24	10	5	9	-1	35
7	FC Koln	24	8	10	6	+6	34
8	Freiburg	24	10	4	10	-10	34
9	M'gladbach	24	9	5	10	-3	32
10	Leverkusen	24	9	4	11	-2	31
11	Schalke 04	24	8	6	10	+4	30
12	Mainz	24	8	5	11	-7	29
13	Augsburg	24	7	7	10	-10	28
14	Wolfsburg	24	7	5	12	-12	26
15	Werder Bremen	24	7	5	12	-13	26
16	Hamburg	24	7	5	12	-22	26
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	24	5	4	15	-18	19
18	Darmstadt	24	4	3	17	-29	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hertha	12	10	1	1	+15	31
2	Bayern Munich	12	9	3	0	+33	30
3	RB Leipzig	12	9	1	2	+11	28
4	Dortmund	11	8	3	0	+21	27
5	Hoffenheim	12	7	5	0	+16	26
6	Schalke 04	13	7	2	4	+11	23
7	Freiburg	12	7	1	4	-2	22
8	M'gladbach	12	6	3	3	+9	21
9	Ein Frankfurt	11	6	3	2	+6	21
10	FC Koln	11	5	5	1	+7	20
11	Mainz	12	5	4	3	+4	19
12	Leverkusen	13	5	3	5	+2	18
13	Hamburg	12	5	3	4	-6	18
14	Darmstadt	13	4	3	6	-7	15
15	Werder Bremen	12	4	1	7	-3	13
16	Augsburg	12	3	4	5	-7	13
17	Wolfsburg	12	3	2	7	-7	11
18	FC Ingolstadt 04	12	2	3	7	-9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	9	2	1	+14	29
2	RB Leipzig	12	6	3	3	+7	21
3	Dortmund	13	4	4	5	+5	16
4	Hoffenheim	12	3	7	2	+4	16
5	Augsburg	12	4	3	5	-3	15
6	Wolfsburg	12	4	3	5	-5	15
7	FC Koln	13	3	5	5	-1	14
8	Ein Frankfurt	13	4	2	7	-7	14
9	Leverkusen	11	4	1	6	-4	13
10	Werder Bremen	12	3	4	5	-10	13
11	Freiburg	12	3	3	6	-8	12
12	M'gladbach	12	3	2	7	-12	11
13	FC Ingolstadt 04	12	3	1	8	-9	10
14	Mainz	12	3	1	8	-11	10
15	Hertha	12	2	3	7	-9	9
16	Hamburg	12	2	2	8	-16	8
17	Schalke 04	11	1	4	6	-7	7
18	Darmstadt	11	0	0	11	-22	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.