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Championship

Referee: Jeremy Simpson

Stoke

T U S T U

2–0

Full-time

Bolton

U T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Bolton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

1,7

0,7

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,8

This season — Championship · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 30%

20%

40%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

70%

50%

Both score Ø 55%

70%

40%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

58% Possession 42%

15 Shots 6

7 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 17. · Bolton 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	11	6	4	1	+10	22
2	West Brom	10	6	2	2	+11	20
3	Leeds	10	5	4	1	+10	19
4	Sheffield United	10	6	1	3	+5	19
5	Brentford	11	4	5	2	+6	17
6	Swansea	11	4	5	2	+4	17
7	Wigan	11	5	2	4	+2	17
8	Norwich	10	5	2	3	+1	17
9	Derby	9	5	1	3	+5	16
10	Bristol City	10	4	3	3	+3	15
11	Nott'm Forest	10	3	6	1	+2	15
12	Aston Villa	11	3	6	2	+1	15
13	Sheffield Weds	10	4	3	3	+0	15
14	Blackburn	10	3	6	1	+0	15
15	Bolton	10	4	3	3	-2	15
16	Birmingham	11	1	8	2	-1	11
17	Stoke	10	2	4	4	-4	10
18	Rotherham	10	3	1	6	-8	10
19	QPR	10	3	1	6	-11	10
20	Reading	10	2	3	5	-1	9
21	Hull	11	2	2	7	-8	8
22	Millwall	10	1	3	6	-7	6
23	Ipswich	11	0	6	5	-8	6
24	Preston	11	1	3	7	-10	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brentford	6	4	2	0	+9	14
2	Wigan	6	4	2	0	+4	14
3	Middlesbrough	5	4	1	0	+7	13
4	West Brom	5	4	0	1	+10	12
5	Nott'm Forest	5	3	2	0	+3	11
6	Leeds	5	3	1	1	+6	10
7	Derby	4	3	1	0	+6	10
8	Sheffield United	5	3	1	1	+4	10
9	Rotherham	5	3	1	1	+2	10
10	Aston Villa	6	2	3	1	+2	9
11	Sheffield Weds	5	2	3	0	+2	9
12	Norwich	5	3	0	2	+0	9
13	Swansea	5	2	2	1	+3	8
14	Bristol City	5	2	2	1	+2	8
15	Blackburn	5	1	4	0	+1	7
16	Stoke	5	2	1	2	-1	7
17	Bolton	5	2	1	2	-2	7
18	QPR	5	2	0	3	-2	6
19	Birmingham	5	0	5	0	+0	5
20	Preston	5	1	2	2	-1	5
21	Millwall	5	1	2	2	-1	5
22	Ipswich	6	0	5	1	-2	5
23	Hull	6	1	1	4	-3	4
24	Reading	5	1	0	4	-1	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	5	2	3	0	+4	9
2	Middlesbrough	6	2	3	1	+3	9
3	Sheffield United	5	3	0	2	+1	9
4	Swansea	6	2	3	1	+1	9
5	West Brom	5	2	2	1	+1	8
6	Norwich	5	2	2	1	+1	8
7	Bolton	5	2	2	1	+0	8
8	Blackburn	5	2	2	1	-1	8
9	Bristol City	5	2	1	2	+1	7
10	Reading	5	1	3	1	+0	6
11	Aston Villa	5	1	3	1	-1	6
12	Birmingham	6	1	3	2	-1	6
13	Derby	5	2	0	3	-1	6
14	Sheffield Weds	5	2	0	3	-2	6
15	Nott'm Forest	5	0	4	1	-1	4
16	Hull	5	1	1	3	-5	4
17	QPR	5	1	1	3	-9	4
18	Wigan	5	1	0	4	-2	3
19	Stoke	5	0	3	2	-3	3
20	Brentford	5	0	3	2	-3	3
21	Ipswich	5	0	1	4	-6	1
22	Millwall	5	0	1	4	-6	1
23	Preston	6	0	1	5	-9	1
24	Rotherham	5	0	0	5	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.