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Championship

Referee: Lee Probert

Bolton

T S S U S

1–0

Full-time

Birmingham

T S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bolton Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,7

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

This season — Championship · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

1,7

Scored

1,7

0,7

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

48% Possession 52%

9 Shots 17

4 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 6

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 10

2 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bolton 7. · Birmingham 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	4	3	1	0	+6	10
2	Brentford	4	2	2	0	+6	8
3	Aston Villa	4	2	2	0	+3	8
4	Swansea	4	2	2	0	+2	8
5	West Brom	4	2	1	1	+6	7
6	Leeds	3	2	1	0	+4	7
7	Bolton	3	2	1	0	+2	7
8	Derby	3	2	0	1	+2	6
9	Nott'm Forest	4	1	3	0	+1	6
10	Blackburn	4	1	3	0	+1	6
11	Sheffield United	4	2	0	2	-2	6
12	Bristol City	4	1	2	1	+1	5
13	Millwall	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Norwich	4	1	1	2	+0	4
15	Wigan	3	1	1	1	+0	4
16	Sheffield Weds	4	1	1	2	-2	4
17	Hull	4	1	1	2	-2	4
18	Preston	4	1	1	2	-2	4
19	Rotherham	4	1	0	3	-6	3
20	Birmingham	3	0	2	1	-1	2
21	Stoke	3	0	2	1	-2	2
22	Ipswich	4	0	2	2	-3	2
23	Reading	4	0	1	3	-3	1
24	QPR	4	0	0	4	-11	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brentford	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Leeds	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Aston Villa	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Wigan	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Millwall	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Preston	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Sheffield Weds	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Nott'm Forest	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+5	3
12	Derby	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Norwich	2	1	0	1	+1	3
14	Sheffield United	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Rotherham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Ipswich	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Blackburn	2	0	2	0	+0	2
18	Birmingham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
19	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-2	1
22	Reading	2	0	0	2	-2	0
23	Hull	2	0	0	2	-3	0
24	QPR	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bolton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
2	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+3	4
3	Aston Villa	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Middlesbrough	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	West Brom	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Hull	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Blackburn	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Derby	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Sheffield United	2	1	0	1	-2	3
11	Brentford	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Nott'm Forest	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Norwich	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Reading	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Millwall	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Sheffield Weds	2	0	0	2	-3	0
21	Preston	2	0	0	2	-3	0
22	Ipswich	2	0	0	2	-3	0
23	Rotherham	2	0	0	2	-6	0
24	QPR	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.