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Championship

Referee: Oliver Langford

Bolton

T U U S T

0–1

Full-time

Birmingham

T T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bolton Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,0

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

This season — Championship · 39/39 matches

Win Ø 25%

23%

26%

Points per game

1,0

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

36%

31%

Both score Ø 40%

46%

33%

Average goals

2,4

2,2

Scored

0,9

0,7

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

58% Possession 42%

8 Shots 10

0 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

8 Corners 6

2 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Bolton 20. · Birmingham 21. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	40	26	8	6	+37	86
2	Cardiff	39	24	8	7	+29	80
3	Fulham	37	20	11	6	+29	71
4	Aston Villa	37	19	9	9	+25	66
5	Derby	37	17	13	7	+20	64
6	Middlesbrough	38	18	8	12	+18	62
7	Bristol City	40	16	14	10	+11	62
8	Millwall	40	16	14	10	+11	62
9	Sheffield United	40	18	8	14	+8	62
10	Preston	40	15	15	10	+7	60
11	Brentford	40	15	13	12	+9	58
12	Ipswich	40	15	8	17	-2	53
13	Leeds	40	15	8	17	-4	53
14	Norwich	40	13	13	14	-8	52
15	QPR	40	13	11	16	-8	50
16	Sheffield Weds	40	11	14	15	-6	47
17	Nott'm Forest	39	13	7	19	-13	46
18	Hull	40	9	14	17	-6	41
19	Reading	40	9	12	19	-15	39
20	Bolton	39	9	12	18	-24	39
21	Birmingham	39	10	6	23	-28	36
22	Barnsley	39	7	13	19	-19	34
23	Sunderland	40	6	13	21	-29	31
24	Burton Albion	40	7	10	23	-42	31

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cardiff	20	15	3	2	+24	48
2	Wolves	20	14	4	2	+25	46
3	Fulham	19	11	6	2	+21	39
4	Aston Villa	18	11	5	2	+20	38
5	Sheffield United	20	11	4	5	+13	37
6	Millwall	20	10	7	3	+12	37
7	Middlesbrough	19	11	3	5	+12	36
8	Bristol City	20	10	5	5	+12	35
9	QPR	20	10	5	5	+4	35
10	Derby	18	9	5	4	+13	32
11	Brentford	20	7	10	3	+11	31
12	Ipswich	20	8	5	7	+5	29
13	Leeds	20	8	5	7	+2	29
14	Preston	20	7	7	6	+2	28
15	Bolton	19	8	4	7	-2	28
16	Hull	20	6	8	6	+8	26
17	Norwich	20	6	8	6	-1	26
18	Nott'm Forest	19	8	2	9	-5	26
19	Birmingham	20	8	2	10	-6	26
20	Sheffield Weds	20	6	7	7	+0	25
21	Reading	20	4	7	9	-7	19
22	Barnsley	20	3	8	9	-10	17
23	Sunderland	20	2	6	12	-18	12
24	Burton Albion	20	2	5	13	-23	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	20	12	4	4	+12	40
2	Fulham	18	9	5	4	+8	32
3	Derby	19	8	8	3	+7	32
4	Preston	20	8	8	4	+5	32
5	Cardiff	19	9	5	5	+5	32
6	Aston Villa	19	8	4	7	+5	28
7	Bristol City	20	6	9	5	-1	27
8	Brentford	20	8	3	9	-2	27
9	Middlesbrough	19	7	5	7	+6	26
10	Norwich	20	7	5	8	-7	26
11	Millwall	20	6	7	7	-1	25
12	Sheffield United	20	7	4	9	-5	25
13	Leeds	20	7	3	10	-6	24
14	Ipswich	20	7	3	10	-7	24
15	Sheffield Weds	20	5	7	8	-6	22
16	Nott'm Forest	20	5	5	10	-8	20
17	Reading	20	5	5	10	-8	20
18	Burton Albion	20	5	5	10	-19	20
19	Sunderland	20	4	7	9	-11	19
20	Barnsley	19	4	5	10	-9	17
21	QPR	20	3	6	11	-12	15
22	Hull	20	3	6	11	-14	15
23	Bolton	20	1	8	11	-22	11
24	Birmingham	19	2	4	13	-22	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.