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Championship

Referee: Keith Stroud

Millwall

T U S U S

1–1

Full-time

Cardiff

T T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Cardiff

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

This season — Championship · 30/29 matches

Win Ø 43%

30%

55%

Points per game

1,3

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

43%

48%

Both score Ø 44%

43%

45%

Average goals

2,3

2,4

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,1

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

55% Possession 45%

16 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 6

12 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 14. · Cardiff 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	30	21	5	4	+32	68
2	Derby	29	16	8	5	+24	56
3	Cardiff	29	16	6	7	+18	54
4	Bristol City	30	14	9	7	+9	51
5	Fulham	28	14	8	6	+17	50
6	Aston Villa	27	14	7	6	+17	49
7	Preston	30	12	12	6	+8	48
8	Sheffield United	30	14	4	12	+6	46
9	Middlesbrough	28	13	5	10	+11	44
10	Leeds	30	13	5	12	+4	44
11	Brentford	30	11	10	9	+3	43
12	Ipswich	30	13	4	13	+2	43
13	Norwich	30	12	7	11	-3	43
14	Millwall	30	9	11	10	+2	38
15	QPR	30	9	9	12	-10	36
16	Nott'm Forest	30	11	2	17	-13	35
17	Sheffield Weds	30	7	12	11	-6	33
18	Reading	30	8	8	14	-6	32
19	Birmingham	30	8	6	16	-19	30
20	Bolton	29	7	8	14	-19	29
21	Barnsley	30	6	9	15	-15	27
22	Hull	30	5	11	14	-7	26
23	Sunderland	30	5	10	15	-21	25
24	Burton Albion	30	6	6	18	-34	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	15	11	2	2	+19	35
2	Cardiff	14	9	3	2	+16	30
3	Derby	15	9	3	3	+16	30
4	Aston Villa	13	8	4	1	+14	28
5	Bristol City	15	8	3	4	+8	27
6	Fulham	14	7	5	2	+12	26
7	Ipswich	15	8	2	5	+9	26
8	Sheffield United	15	8	2	5	+9	26
9	Millwall	15	7	5	3	+8	26
10	Brentford	15	6	7	2	+8	25
11	QPR	15	7	4	4	+1	25
12	Middlesbrough	14	7	3	4	+5	24
13	Preston	15	6	6	3	+4	24
14	Leeds	15	6	4	5	+4	22
15	Bolton	15	6	3	6	-2	21
16	Nott'm Forest	15	7	0	8	-4	21
17	Norwich	15	5	5	5	+0	20
18	Birmingham	15	6	2	7	-6	20
19	Hull	15	4	6	5	+7	18
20	Sheffield Weds	15	4	6	5	-2	18
21	Barnsley	15	3	5	7	-7	14
22	Reading	15	3	4	8	-6	13
23	Sunderland	15	2	5	8	-9	11
24	Burton Albion	15	2	2	11	-20	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	15	10	3	2	+13	33
2	Derby	14	7	5	2	+8	26
3	Fulham	14	7	3	4	+5	24
4	Preston	15	6	6	3	+4	24
5	Cardiff	15	7	3	5	+2	24
6	Bristol City	15	6	6	3	+1	24
7	Norwich	15	7	2	6	-3	23
8	Leeds	15	7	1	7	+0	22
9	Aston Villa	14	6	3	5	+3	21
10	Middlesbrough	14	6	2	6	+6	20
11	Sheffield United	15	6	2	7	-3	20
12	Reading	15	5	4	6	+0	19
13	Brentford	15	5	3	7	-5	18
14	Ipswich	15	5	2	8	-7	17
15	Burton Albion	15	4	4	7	-14	16
16	Sheffield Weds	15	3	6	6	-4	15
17	Nott'm Forest	15	4	2	9	-9	14
18	Sunderland	15	3	5	7	-12	14
19	Barnsley	15	3	4	8	-8	13
20	Millwall	15	2	6	7	-6	12
21	QPR	15	2	5	8	-11	11
22	Birmingham	15	2	4	9	-13	10
23	Hull	15	1	5	9	-14	8
24	Bolton	14	1	5	8	-17	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.