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Championship

Referee: Keith Stroud

Derby

S S U S S

1–0

Full-time

QPR

S T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby QPR

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,3

This season — Championship · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 43%

50%

36%

Points per game

1,9

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

43%

64%

Both score Ø 57%

57%

Average goals

2,2

3,2

Scored

1,5

1,6

Conceded

0,7

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

54% Possession 46%

15 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 15

4 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Derby 5. · QPR 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	14	8	6	0	+8	30
2	Hull	14	8	4	2	+13	28
3	Burnley	14	8	4	2	+7	28
4	Middlesbrough	14	8	3	3	+14	27
5	Derby	14	7	6	1	+11	27
6	Birmingham	14	7	3	4	+4	24
7	Reading	14	6	5	3	+8	23
8	Sheffield Weds	14	6	5	3	+3	23
9	Cardiff	14	5	7	2	+4	22
10	Fulham	14	5	5	4	+6	20
11	Brentford	14	6	2	6	+0	20
12	QPR	14	5	4	5	-1	19
13	Wolves	14	5	3	6	+0	18
14	Ipswich	14	4	6	4	-5	18
15	Blackburn	14	3	6	5	+0	15
16	Huddersfield	14	3	5	6	-4	14
17	Nott'm Forest	14	3	5	6	-4	14
18	Preston	14	2	7	5	-3	13
19	Leeds	14	2	7	5	-7	13
20	Milton Keynes Dons	14	3	2	9	-9	11
21	Bristol City	14	2	5	7	-10	11
22	Bolton	14	1	7	6	-10	10
23	Charlton	14	2	4	8	-13	10
24	Rotherham	14	2	3	9	-12	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	7	5	2	0	+10	17
2	Brighton	7	5	2	0	+5	17
3	Middlesbrough	7	5	1	1	+12	16
4	Burnley	7	5	1	1	+6	16
5	Sheffield Weds	7	4	2	1	+4	14
6	Cardiff	7	4	2	1	+4	14
7	Derby	7	3	3	1	+6	12
8	Reading	7	3	3	1	+6	12
9	QPR	7	3	3	1	+5	12
10	Fulham	7	3	2	2	+3	11
11	Ipswich	7	2	4	1	+2	10
12	Birmingham	7	3	1	3	-1	10
13	Brentford	7	3	1	3	-2	10
14	Huddersfield	7	2	3	2	+3	9
15	Blackburn	7	2	3	2	+3	9
16	Bolton	7	1	5	1	+0	8
17	Wolves	7	2	2	3	-1	8
18	Charlton	7	2	2	3	-4	8
19	Nott'm Forest	7	1	3	3	-2	6
20	Milton Keynes Dons	7	2	0	5	-4	6
21	Preston	7	0	5	2	-2	5
22	Bristol City	7	1	2	4	-6	5
23	Rotherham	7	1	2	4	-6	5
24	Leeds	7	0	3	4	-6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Derby	7	4	3	0	+5	15
2	Birmingham	7	4	2	1	+5	14
3	Brighton	7	3	4	0	+3	13
4	Burnley	7	3	3	1	+1	12
5	Hull	7	3	2	2	+3	11
6	Reading	7	3	2	2	+2	11
7	Middlesbrough	7	3	2	2	+2	11
8	Brentford	7	3	1	3	+2	10
9	Wolves	7	3	1	3	+1	10
10	Leeds	7	2	4	1	-1	10
11	Fulham	7	2	3	2	+3	9
12	Sheffield Weds	7	2	3	2	-1	9
13	Cardiff	7	1	5	1	+0	8
14	Preston	7	2	2	3	-1	8
15	Nott'm Forest	7	2	2	3	-2	8
16	Ipswich	7	2	2	3	-7	8
17	QPR	7	2	1	4	-6	7
18	Blackburn	7	1	3	3	-3	6
19	Bristol City	7	1	3	3	-4	6
20	Milton Keynes Dons	7	1	2	4	-5	5
21	Huddersfield	7	1	2	4	-7	5
22	Rotherham	7	1	1	5	-6	4
23	Charlton	7	0	2	5	-9	2
24	Bolton	7	0	2	5	-10	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.