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Premier League
Referee: M Oliver
Liverpool
S U T S S
4–3
Full-time
Leeds
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Leeds
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 84%
67%
100%
Points per game
2,2
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 58%
83%
33%
Average goals
3,8
3,2
Scored
2,5
2,8
Conceded
1,3
0,3
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+2,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–2

48% Possession 52%
22 Shots 6
6 Shots on target 3
13 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 3
9 Corners 0
2 Offside 5
9 Free kicks against 6
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Liverpool Leeds
1–0 Mohamed Salah ⚽
4′
12′
⚽ J. Harrison 1–1
K. Phillips
2–1 V. van Dijk ⚽
A. Robertson
20′
30′
⚽ P. Bamford 2–2
3–2 Mohamed Salah ⚽
33′
Half-time 3–2
Fabinho 🔁
↦ N. Keïta
59′
62′
🔁 T. Roberts
↦ Pablo Hernández
62′
🔁 Rodrigo
↦ P. Bamford
C. Jones 🔁
↦ J. Henderson
66′
66′
⚽ M. Klich 3–3
Hélder Costa
Roberto Firmino 🟨
76′
81′
🔁 J. Shackleton
↦ M. Klich
4–3 Mohamed Salah ⚽
88′
J. Matip 🔁
↦ T. Alexander-Arnold
89′
Full-time 4–3

Line-ups

Liverpool

4-3-3
1 Alisson G
4 V. van Dijk D
26 A. Robertson D
12 J. Gomez D
66 T. Alexander-Arnold D
5 G. Wijnaldum M
14 J. Henderson M
8 N. Keïta M
9 Roberto Firmino F
11 Mohamed Salah F
10 S. Mané F
Bench (7)
3 Fabinho
17 C. Jones
32 J. Matip
13 Adrián
7 J. Milner
27 D. Origi
18 T. Minamino

Coach: J. Klopp

Leeds

4-1-4-1
1 I. Meslier G
2 L. Ayling D
15 S. Dallas D
5 R. Koch D
21 P. Struijk D
19 Pablo Hernández M
43 M. Klich M
23 K. Phillips M
22 J. Harrison M
17 Hélder Costa M
9 P. Bamford F
Bench (7)
11 T. Roberts
20 Rodrigo
46 J. Shackleton
49 O. Casey
7 I. Poveda-Ocampo
10 E. Alioski
13 Kiko Casilla

Coach: M. Bielsa

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,30
🔒
U
5,96
🔒
B
9,68
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,52
🔒
U2,5
2,53
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Oliver · 207 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.