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Championship

Referee: Peter Bankes

Newcastle

S S S T U

4–3

Full-time

Norwich

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Norwich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

17%

83%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

2,0

1,8

Conceded

0,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,3

This season — Championship · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 62%

56%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,9

Scored

1,9

1,8

Conceded

0,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

57% Possession 43%

22 Shots 7

9 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 2

0 Offside 4

9 Free kicks against 16

5 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 9. · Norwich 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Huddersfield	10	7	1	2	+5	22
2	Norwich	9	6	2	1	+6	20
3	Brighton	10	5	3	2	+6	18
4	Brentford	10	5	2	3	+9	17
5	Bristol City	10	5	2	3	+6	17
6	Birmingham	10	4	5	1	+4	17
7	Sheffield Weds	10	5	2	3	+0	17
8	Reading	10	5	2	3	-3	17
9	Newcastle	9	5	1	3	+10	16
10	Barnsley	10	5	1	4	+6	16
11	Wolves	10	4	3	3	+2	15
12	Fulham	10	3	5	2	-2	14
13	Ipswich	10	3	4	3	+0	13
14	Leeds	10	4	1	5	-2	13
15	Nott'm Forest	10	3	3	4	-2	12
16	QPR	10	3	3	4	-4	12
17	Aston Villa	10	1	7	2	+0	10
18	Burton Albion	10	2	4	4	-2	10
19	Preston	10	3	1	6	-4	10
20	Derby	10	2	3	5	-4	9
21	Wigan	10	2	2	6	-2	8
22	Blackburn	10	2	2	6	-7	8
23	Cardiff	10	2	2	6	-9	8
24	Rotherham	10	1	3	6	-13	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Huddersfield	5	5	0	0	+5	15
2	Brentford	5	4	1	0	+11	13
3	Norwich	5	4	1	0	+5	13
4	Brighton	5	4	0	1	+7	12
5	Sheffield Weds	5	4	0	1	+2	12
6	Reading	5	3	2	0	+3	11
7	Barnsley	5	3	1	1	+6	10
8	Nott'm Forest	5	3	1	1	+3	10
9	Bristol City	5	3	1	1	+3	10
10	Ipswich	5	2	3	0	+3	9
11	Wigan	5	2	2	1	+3	8
12	Birmingham	5	2	2	1	+2	8
13	Wolves	5	2	2	1	+0	8
14	Aston Villa	5	1	4	0	+3	7
15	Burton Albion	5	2	1	2	+1	7
16	Leeds	5	2	1	2	+0	7
17	Newcastle	4	2	0	2	+2	6
18	Preston	5	2	0	3	+1	6
19	Rotherham	5	1	3	1	+0	6
20	Fulham	5	1	2	2	-4	5
21	QPR	5	1	2	2	-5	5
22	Blackburn	5	1	1	3	-3	4
23	Cardiff	5	1	0	4	-6	3
24	Derby	5	0	2	3	-4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	5	3	1	1	+8	10
2	Birmingham	5	2	3	0	+2	9
3	Fulham	5	2	3	0	+2	9
4	Bristol City	5	2	1	2	+3	7
5	Wolves	5	2	1	2	+2	7
6	Norwich	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	QPR	5	2	1	2	+1	7
8	Huddersfield	5	2	1	2	+0	7
9	Derby	5	2	1	2	+0	7
10	Barnsley	5	2	0	3	+0	6
11	Brighton	5	1	3	1	-1	6
12	Leeds	5	2	0	3	-2	6
13	Reading	5	2	0	3	-6	6
14	Sheffield Weds	5	1	2	2	-2	5
15	Cardiff	5	1	2	2	-3	5
16	Brentford	5	1	1	3	-2	4
17	Ipswich	5	1	1	3	-3	4
18	Blackburn	5	1	1	3	-4	4
19	Preston	5	1	1	3	-5	4
20	Burton Albion	5	0	3	2	-3	3
21	Aston Villa	5	0	3	2	-3	3
22	Nott'm Forest	5	0	2	3	-5	2
23	Wigan	5	0	0	5	-5	0
24	Rotherham	5	0	0	5	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.