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Championship

Referee: Andy Davies

Birmingham

T U U S T

1–0

Full-time

Milton Keynes Dons

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Milton Keynes Dons

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,0

Scored

0,5

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,3

This season — Championship · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 33%

39%

26%

Points per game

1,4

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

30%

43%

Both score Ø 41%

39%

43%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

1,2

0,9

Conceded

1,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

44% Possession 56%

17 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

11 Corners 2

5 Offside 6

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 10. · Milton Keynes Dons 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	22	14	4	4	+21	46
2	Hull	22	13	5	4	+20	44
3	Derby	22	12	8	2	+20	44
4	Brighton	22	11	10	1	+8	43
5	Burnley	23	10	8	5	+7	38
6	Ipswich	23	10	7	6	+3	37
7	Sheffield Weds	22	9	8	5	+8	35
8	Cardiff	23	8	9	6	+3	33
9	Brentford	23	9	6	8	+2	33
10	Birmingham	23	9	6	8	+1	33
11	Reading	23	8	6	9	+2	30
12	Leeds	23	7	9	7	-2	30
13	Nott'm Forest	23	7	8	8	+1	29
14	QPR	23	7	8	8	-2	29
15	Blackburn	23	6	10	7	+2	28
16	Wolves	23	7	7	9	-3	28
17	Preston	23	5	10	8	-3	25
18	Fulham	23	5	9	9	-5	24
19	Huddersfield	23	6	6	11	-8	24
20	Milton Keynes Dons	23	6	4	13	-11	22
21	Rotherham	23	6	3	14	-10	21
22	Bristol City	23	4	9	10	-17	21
23	Charlton	23	4	7	12	-19	19
24	Bolton	24	2	11	11	-18	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	11	9	2	0	+18	29
2	Middlesbrough	11	8	2	1	+15	26
3	Brighton	11	8	2	1	+5	26
4	Derby	12	7	4	1	+15	25
5	Sheffield Weds	11	7	3	1	+12	24
6	Burnley	11	7	2	2	+10	23
7	Cardiff	11	6	4	1	+7	22
8	Brentford	12	6	2	4	+1	20
9	Reading	11	5	4	2	+7	19
10	Nott'm Forest	12	5	4	3	+5	19
11	QPR	11	4	6	1	+6	18
12	Ipswich	12	4	5	3	+2	17
13	Milton Keynes Dons	12	5	1	6	-2	16
14	Blackburn	11	3	6	2	+4	15
15	Huddersfield	12	4	3	5	+1	15
16	Bolton	12	2	8	2	+0	14
17	Rotherham	12	4	2	6	-1	14
18	Wolves	12	3	5	4	-1	14
19	Birmingham	11	4	2	5	-3	14
20	Fulham	11	3	4	4	-1	13
21	Charlton	11	3	4	4	-5	13
22	Preston	11	2	6	3	-1	12
23	Leeds	11	3	3	5	-4	12
24	Bristol City	12	2	5	5	-7	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	11	6	2	3	+6	20
2	Ipswich	11	6	2	3	+1	20
3	Derby	10	5	4	1	+5	19
4	Birmingham	12	5	4	3	+4	19
5	Leeds	12	4	6	2	+2	18
6	Brighton	11	3	8	0	+3	17
7	Hull	11	4	3	4	+2	15
8	Burnley	12	3	6	3	-3	15
9	Wolves	11	4	2	5	-2	14
10	Brentford	11	3	4	4	+1	13
11	Blackburn	12	3	4	5	-2	13
12	Preston	12	3	4	5	-2	13
13	Fulham	12	2	5	5	-4	11
14	Sheffield Weds	11	2	5	4	-4	11
15	Cardiff	12	2	5	5	-4	11
16	Reading	12	3	2	7	-5	11
17	QPR	12	3	2	7	-8	11
18	Nott'm Forest	11	2	4	5	-4	10
19	Bristol City	11	2	4	5	-10	10
20	Huddersfield	11	2	3	6	-9	9
21	Rotherham	11	2	1	8	-9	7
22	Milton Keynes Dons	11	1	3	7	-9	6
23	Charlton	12	1	3	8	-14	6
24	Bolton	12	0	3	9	-18	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.