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Europa League
Referee: M Krogh
Sp Braga
T S U S T
2–4
Full-time
Qarabag
S T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Qarabag
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,0
2,7
Scored
1,0
1,2
Conceded
2,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,55 xG 2,70
58% Possession 42%
16 Shots 11
9 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 6
7 Corners 2
0 Offside 2
16 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Sp Braga Qarabag
21′
⚽ M. Janković 0–1
30′
🟨 Matheus Silva
1–1 S. Banza ⚽
44′
Half-time 1–1
Abel Ruíz 🟨
47′
54′
⚽ A. Zoubir 1–2
56′
ℹ️ Bahlul Mustafazada
VAR: Goal confirmed
Roger Fernandes 🔁
↦ Álvaro Djaló
56′
65′
⚽ Juninho 1–3
A. Zoubir
66′
ℹ️ Juninho Vieira
VAR: Goal confirmed
Pizzi 🔁
↦ R. Zalazar
68′
68′
🔁 T. Bayramov
↦ Leandro Andrade
69′
⚽ A. Zoubir 1–4
T. Bayramov
76′
🟨 Júlio Romão
J. Mendes 🔁
↦ Víctor Gómez
76′
C. Ndour 🔁
↦ Vitor Carvalho
76′
86′
🔁 A. Isaev
↦ Júlio Romão
86′
🔁 H. Keyta
↦ Y. Benzia
87′
🔁 N. Axundzadə
↦ Juninho
2–4 João Moutinho ⚽
91′
97′
🔁 R. Xhixha
↦ A. Zoubir
Full-time 2–4

Line-ups

Sp Braga

4-1-4-1
1 Matheus G
2 Víctor Gómez D
15 Paulo Oliveira D
4 S. Niakaté D
26 C. Borja D
28 João Moutinho M
14 Álvaro Djaló M
18 Vitor Carvalho M
16 R. Zalazar M
9 Abel Ruiz M
23 S. Banza F
Bench (12)
11 Roger Fernandes
22 Pizzi
17 J. Mendes
10 C. Ndour
6 José Fonte
12 Tiago Sá
59 Yan Said
20 Rony Lopes
5 S. Saatçı
90 D. Soumaré
55 Francisco Chissumba
91 L. Horníček

Coach: Artur Jorge

Qarabag

4-2-3-1
99 A. Lunev G
2 Matheus Silva D
13 B. Mustafazadə D
55 B. Hüseynov D
44 E. Cəfərquliyev D
6 Júlio Romão M
8 M. Janković M
15 Leandro Andrade M
7 Y. Benzia M
10 A. Zoubir M
18 Juninho F
Bench (11)
27 T. Bayramov
24 A. Isaev
17 H. Keyta
90 N. Axundzadə
19 R. Xhixha
5 M. Medvedev
89 A. Ramazanov
23 L. Gugeshashvili
66 Patrick Andrade
30 A. Hüseynov
81 K. Medina

Coach: Q. Qurbanov

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Krogh · 77 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,4 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.