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Europa League
Referee: I Kružliak
Ajax
S T S U S
0–1
Full-time
Ludogorets
U T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Ludogorets
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
100%
83%
Both score Ø 92%
100%
83%
Average goals
4,5
3,8
Scored
2,8
2,2
Conceded
1,7
1,7
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,5
This season — Europa League · 1/3 matches
Win Ø 67%
100%
33%
Points per game
3,0
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
5,0
4,7
Scored
4,0
2,3
Conceded
1,0
2,3
Goal diff per game
+3,0
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

53% Possession 47%
8 Shots 8
2 Shots on target 1
3 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
1 Corners 0
1 Offside 2
17 Free kicks against 17
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

24. Aug -23 Ludogorets – Ajax 1–4

Match report

Ajax Ludogorets
Steven Bergwijn 🟨
45′
Half-time 0–0
D. Klaassen 🔁
↦ B. van den Boomen
46′
46′
🔁 M. Tissera
↦ Rwan Cruz
55′
🟨 Marcel Heister
Kenneth Taylor 🟨
56′
S. Berghuis 🔁
↦ Carlos Forbs
59′
60′
🔁 D. Yankov
↦ I. Yordanov
62′
⚽ M. Tissera 0–1
67′
🔁 Rick
↦ Caio Vidal
71′
🟨 Claude Gonçalves
M. Godts 🔁
↦ S. Bergwijn
72′
Steven Berghuis 🟨
74′
A. Salah-Eddine 🔁
↦ O. Wijndal
81′
81′
🔁 S. Delev
↦ B. Tekpetey
81′
🔁 Pedro Naressi
↦ J. Piotrowski
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Ajax

4-3-3
12 J. Gorter G
2 D. Rensch D
18 J. Medić D
4 J. Hato D
5 O. Wijndal D
21 B. van den Boomen M
33 B. Tahirović M
8 K. Taylor M
11 Carlos Forbs F
9 B. Brobbey F
7 S. Bergwijn F
Bench (12)
6 D. Klaassen
23 S. Berghuis
39 M. Godts
17 A. Salah-Eddine
51 C. Setford
24 S. Vos
43 O. Aertssen
49 J. Banel
3 A. Gaaei
40 D. Ramaj
38 K. Hlynsson
36 C. Rasmussen

Coach: M. Steijn

Ludogorets

4-3-3
12 S. Sluga G
16 A. Witry D
26 N. Sonko-Sundberg D
24 O. Verdon D
44 M. Heister D
82 I. Yordanov M
8 Claude Gonçalves M
6 J. Piotrowski M
77 Caio Vidal M
99 Rwan Cruz F
37 B. Tekpetey F
Bench (12)
10 M. Tissera
64 D. Yankov
7 Rick
90 S. Delev
30 Pedro Naressi
69 P. Pepelyashev
1 S. Padt
22 F. Russo
11 K. Despodov
5 G. Terziev
17 Son
32 I. Plastun

Coach: I. Petev

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

I Kružliak · 33 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.