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Champions League
Referee: R Jones
Fenerbahce
U S S S S
2–1
Full-time
Lugano
T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fenerbahce Lugano
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
83%
50%
Points per game
2,7
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
3,3
4,0
Scored
2,7
2,0
Conceded
0,7
2,0
Goal diff per game
+2,0
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
100%
0%
Points per game
3,0
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
7,0
7,0
Scored
4,0
3,0
Conceded
3,0
4,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
-1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

46% Possession 54%
10 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 4
1 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 3
3 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 20
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

23. Jul -24 Lugano – Fenerbahce 3–4

Match report

Fenerbahce Lugano
7′
⚽ H. Mahmoud 0–1
İ. Yüksek 🔁
↦ Fred
31′
Half-time 0–1
M. Yandaş 🔁
↦ R. Krunić
46′
55′
🟨 Ousmane Doumbia
57′
🟨 Mohamed Haj Mahmoud
57′
🟨 Ignacio Aliseda
1–1 E. Džeko ⚽
M. Yandaş
59′
60′
🔁 K. Przybyłko
↦ M. Bottani
67′
🔁 Y. Cimignani
↦ A. Hajdari
67′
🔁 A. Grgic
↦ H. Mahmoud
M. Müldür 🔁
↦ B. Osayi-Samuel
70′
73′
🔁 Daniel Dos Santos
↦ U. Bislimi
73′
🔁 H. Mahou
↦ I. Aliseda
78′
🟨 Mattia Zanotti
İ. Kahveci 🔁
↦ F. Kadıoğlu
83′
Edin Džeko 🟨
86′
2–1 S. Szymański ⚽
D. Tadić
93′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Fenerbahce

4-3-3
40 D. Livaković G
21 B. Osayi-Samuel D
2 Ç. Söyüncü D
6 A. Djiku D
24 J. Oosterwolde D
35 Fred M
33 R. Krunić M
53 S. Szymański M
10 D. Tadić F
9 E. Džeko F
7 F. Kadıoğlu F
Bench (12)
5 İ. Yüksek
8 M. Yandaş
16 M. Müldür
17 İ. Kahveci
28 B. Elmaz
54 E. Çetin
97 A. Saint-Maximin
30 İ. Eğribayat
70 O. Aydın
23 C. Tosun
11 R. Kent
50 Rodrigo Becão

Coach: José Mourinho

Lugano

4-1-4-1
1 A. Saipi G
46 M. Zanotti D
22 A. El Wafi D
6 A. Papadopoulos D
23 M. Valenzuela D
5 A. Hajdari M
20 O. Doumbia M
29 H. Mahmoud M
25 U. Bislimi M
10 M. Bottani M
31 I. Aliseda F
Bench (12)
93 K. Przybyłko
21 Y. Cimignani
8 A. Grgic
27 Daniel Dos Santos
18 H. Mahou
28 Y. Ryter
58 S. Osigwe
2 Z. Brault-Guillard
99 D. Mina
7 R. Macek
17 L. Mai
26 Martim Marques

Coach: M. Croci-Torti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

R Jones · 186 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,07 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.