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Champions League
Referee: D Massa
Real Madrid
S S U S U
1–1
Full-time
RB Leipzig
U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid RB Leipzig
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
2,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,3
2,8
Scored
1,7
1,8
Conceded
0,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 79%
100%
57%
Points per game
3,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 79%
71%
86%
Both score Ø 72%
57%
86%
Average goals
3,4
3,4
Scored
2,4
1,9
Conceded
1,0
1,6
Goal diff per game
+1,4
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,77 xG 1,07
54% Possession 46%
11 Shots 20
3 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 6
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
3 Corners 8
1 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 15
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

13. Feb -24 RB Leipzig – Real Madrid 0–1 25. Oct -22 RB Leipzig – Real Madrid 3–2 14. Sep -22 Real Madrid – RB Leipzig 2–0

Match report

Real Madrid RB Leipzig
20′
🟨 Xaver Schlager
Half-time 0–0
Rodrygo 🔁
↦ E. Camavinga
46′
50′
🟨 David Raum
Vinícius Júnior 🟨
54′
1–0 Vinícius Júnior ⚽
J. Bellingham
65′
68′
⚽ W. Orbán 1–1
D. Raum
71′
🟨 Willi Orbán
Aurélien Tchouaméni 🟨
73′
Toni Kroos 🟨
75′
77′
🔁 Y. Poulsen
↦ L. Openda
L. Modrić 🔁
↦ T. Kroos
78′
Joselu 🔁
↦ J. Bellingham
85′
85′
🔁 C. Baumgartner
↦ B. Šeško
85′
🔁 E. Elmas
↦ X. Schlager
90′
🔁 K. Kampl
↦ A. Haidara
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Real Madrid

4-3-3
13 A. Lunin G
2 Dani Carvajal D
22 A. Rüdiger D
6 Nacho D
23 F. Mendy D
18 A. Tchouaméni M
8 T. Kroos M
12 E. Camavinga M
15 F. Valverde F
5 J. Bellingham F
7 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (10)
11 Rodrygo
10 L. Modrić
14 Joselu
25 Kepa
24 A. Güler
21 Brahim Díaz
30 Fran González
17 Lucas Vázquez
20 Fran García
19 Dani Ceballos

Coach: C. Ancelotti

RB Leipzig

4-2-2-2
1 P. Gulácsi G
39 B. Henrichs D
4 W. Orbán D
23 C. Lukeba D
22 D. Raum D
8 A. Haidara M
24 X. Schlager M
7 Dani Olmo M
20 X. Simons M
30 B. Šeško F
17 L. Openda F
Bench (10)
9 Y. Poulsen
14 C. Baumgartner
6 E. Elmas
44 K. Kampl
5 E. Bitshiabu
3 C. Lenz
13 N. Seiwald
25 L. Zingerle
38 N. Jatta
21 J. Blaswich

Coach: M. Rose

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Massa · 154 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.