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Primeira Liga

Referee: Vasilica Iancu

Estrela

U U U S U

2–1

Full-time

Sp Braga

U S U S S

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estrela Sp Braga

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,5

1,7

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/3 matches

Win Ø 46%

25%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

4,3

2,7

Scored

2,3

1,7

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

37% Possession 63%

9 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 9

0 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estrela 9. · Sp Braga 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	5	5	0	0	+10	+5.4	15
2	Benfica	5	4	1	0	+15	+9.3	13
3	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+9	+4.3	13
4	Santa Clara	5	3	2	0	+6	+2.5	11
5	Arouca	5	3	1	1	+4	-1.3	10
6	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.7	7
7	Gil Vicente	4	2	1	1	+2	+2.5	7
8	Maritimo	5	2	1	2	-2	+0.1	7
9	Estrela	4	1	3	0	+1	-0.8	6
10	Academico Viseu	5	1	2	2	-3	-3.2	5
11	Nacional	5	1	1	3	-2	-3.3	4
12	Guimaraes	5	1	1	3	-2	+4.1	4
13	Moreirense	5	1	1	3	-8	-5.9	4
14	Famalicao	5	0	3	2	-2	-0.9	3
15	Rio Ave	5	1	0	4	-9	-4.5	3
16	Alverca	5	0	2	3	-5	-3.1	2
17	Estoril	5	0	2	3	-5	-3.0	2
18	Casa Pia	5	0	1	4	-11	-3.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.6	9
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.4	9
3	Santa Clara	3	2	1	0	+5	+0.8	7
4	Arouca	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.7	6
5	Gil Vicente	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.5	6
6	Benfica	2	1	1	0	+1	+4.0	4
7	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	+0	+4.6	4
8	Maritimo	3	1	1	1	-2	+0.2	4
9	Nacional	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
10	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
11	Estrela	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.5	2
12	Alverca	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.4	2
13	Estoril	3	0	2	1	-2	-0.2	2
14	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.0	1
15	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-4	-3.7	1
16	Academico Viseu	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.4	0
17	Rio Ave	2	0	0	2	-6	-2.5	0
18	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-8	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+14	+5.3	9
2	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.0	6
3	Academico Viseu	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.8	5
4	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+4	+2.7	4
5	Estrela	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
6	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.1	4
7	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.7	4
8	Arouca	3	1	1	1	-1	-4.0	4
9	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.0	3
10	Rio Ave	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.9	3
11	Moreirense	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.2	3
12	Famalicao	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.1	2
13	Gil Vicente	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
14	Nacional	3	0	1	2	-3	-3.2	1
15	Casa Pia	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.7	1
16	Guimaraes	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.5	0
17	Estoril	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.8	0
18	Alverca	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.