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Primeira Liga

Referee: Artur Soares Dias

Sp Lisbon

S S S U S

1–0

Full-time

Benfica

S U S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Benfica

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,2

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

0,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 74%

80%

67%

Points per game

2,6

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

53%

Both score Ø 54%

47%

60%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

2,2

2,0

Conceded

0,6

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,6

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

46% Possession 54%

10 Shots 5

2 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 1

3 Offside 6

12 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 1. · Benfica 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	15	12	3	0	+24	39
2	Porto	16	12	2	2	+22	38
3	Benfica	15	10	3	2	+15	33
4	Sp Braga	16	11	0	5	+13	33
5	Guimaraes	15	9	2	4	+7	29
6	Pacos Ferreira	15	8	4	3	+10	28
7	Santa Clara	16	6	3	7	-2	21
8	Moreirense	16	4	6	6	-8	18
9	Tondela	16	5	3	8	-10	18
10	Maritimo	16	5	2	9	-6	17
11	Nacional	16	4	5	7	-6	17
12	Belenenses	16	3	6	7	-6	15
13	Portimonense	16	4	3	9	-8	15
14	Rio Ave	16	3	6	7	-9	15
15	Famalicao	16	3	5	8	-11	14
16	Boavista	16	2	8	6	-11	14
17	Gil Vicente	15	3	4	8	-7	13
18	Farense	15	3	3	9	-7	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	9	7	1	1	+12	22
2	Benfica	8	6	1	1	+8	19
3	Sp Braga	7	6	0	1	+7	18
4	Sp Lisbon	7	5	2	0	+10	17
5	Tondela	9	5	2	2	+2	17
6	Pacos Ferreira	7	5	1	1	+6	16
7	Moreirense	9	3	4	2	-1	13
8	Nacional	9	3	3	3	-1	12
9	Guimaraes	8	4	0	4	-2	12
10	Farense	8	3	2	3	+2	11
11	Portimonense	8	3	2	3	+0	11
12	Belenenses	8	2	3	3	-1	9
13	Rio Ave	7	2	2	3	-1	8
14	Gil Vicente	7	2	2	3	-1	8
15	Santa Clara	8	2	2	4	-3	8
16	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-3	8
17	Famalicao	8	1	3	4	-8	6
18	Boavista	7	1	2	4	-8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	8	7	1	0	+14	22
2	Guimaraes	7	5	2	0	+9	17
3	Porto	7	5	1	1	+10	16
4	Sp Braga	9	5	0	4	+6	15
5	Benfica	7	4	2	1	+7	14
6	Santa Clara	8	4	1	3	+1	13
7	Pacos Ferreira	8	3	3	2	+4	12
8	Boavista	9	1	6	2	-3	9
9	Maritimo	9	3	0	6	-3	9
10	Famalicao	8	2	2	4	-3	8
11	Rio Ave	9	1	4	4	-8	7
12	Belenenses	8	1	3	4	-5	6
13	Nacional	7	1	2	4	-5	5
14	Gil Vicente	8	1	2	5	-6	5
15	Moreirense	7	1	2	4	-7	5
16	Portimonense	8	1	1	6	-8	4
17	Farense	7	0	1	6	-9	1
18	Tondela	7	0	1	6	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.