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Premier League

Referee: C Kavanagh

Chelsea

S S S S T

1–0

Full-time

Man United

U S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Man United

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

1,8

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 39%

50%

28%

Points per game

1,8

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

58%

53%

Both score Ø 53%

61%

44%

Average goals

2,9

2,6

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,83 xG 0,30

47% Possession 53%

11 Shots 4

3 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 2

3 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 6. · Man United 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	36	25	8	3	+46	+44.5	83
2	Arsenal	36	18	14	4	+33	+25.9	68
3	Newcastle	36	20	6	10	+23	+17.8	66
4	Aston Villa	37	19	9	9	+9	+9.3	66
5	Man City	36	19	8	9	+24	+18.5	65
6	Chelsea	36	18	9	9	+19	+20.7	63
7	Nott'm Forest	36	18	8	10	+12	-4.4	62
8	Brentford	36	16	7	13	+10	+1.7	55
9	Brighton	36	14	13	9	+3	+4.1	55
10	Bournemouth	36	14	11	11	+12	+14.6	53
11	Fulham	36	14	9	13	+1	+4.9	51
12	Crystal Palace	36	12	13	11	-2	+11.5	49
13	Everton	36	9	15	12	-5	-5.7	42
14	Wolves	36	12	5	19	-13	-13.5	41
15	West Ham	36	10	10	16	-17	-11.7	40
16	Man United	36	10	9	17	-11	-3.9	39
17	Tottenham	37	11	5	21	+2	-4.6	38
18	Ipswich	36	4	10	22	-42	-40.3	22
19	Leicester	36	5	7	24	-47	-38.7	22
20	Southampton	36	2	6	28	-57	-50.6	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	14	3	1	+26	+22.5	45
2	Aston Villa	19	11	7	1	+14	+15.5	40
3	Man City	18	12	3	3	+18	+15.0	39
4	Newcastle	18	12	2	4	+21	+10.8	38
5	Chelsea	18	11	5	2	+16	+18.5	38
6	Arsenal	18	10	6	2	+17	+16.9	36
7	Nott'm Forest	18	9	5	4	+11	+3.4	32
8	Brentford	18	9	4	5	+6	+5.6	31
9	Brighton	18	7	8	3	+3	+5.5	29
10	Fulham	18	7	5	6	-1	+0.4	26
11	Bournemouth	18	7	4	7	+5	+7.8	25
12	Crystal Palace	18	5	7	6	-4	+8.0	22
13	Tottenham	18	6	3	9	+3	-0.5	21
14	Everton	18	4	9	5	+1	-0.8	21
15	Man United	18	6	3	9	-7	+1.4	21
16	Wolves	18	6	2	10	-5	-5.4	20
17	West Ham	18	5	5	8	-10	-8.3	20
18	Leicester	18	3	3	12	-21	-15.8	12
19	Ipswich	18	1	4	13	-28	-16.8	7
20	Southampton	18	1	3	14	-33	-28.9	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	11	5	2	+20	+22.0	38
2	Arsenal	18	8	8	2	+16	+9.0	32
3	Nott'm Forest	18	9	3	6	+1	-7.8	30
4	Bournemouth	18	7	7	4	+7	+6.8	28
5	Newcastle	18	8	4	6	+2	+7.0	28
6	Crystal Palace	18	7	6	5	+2	+3.5	27
7	Man City	18	7	5	6	+6	+3.4	26
8	Brighton	18	7	5	6	+0	-1.4	26
9	Aston Villa	18	8	2	8	-5	-6.2	26
10	Chelsea	18	7	4	7	+3	+2.2	25
11	Fulham	18	7	4	7	+2	+4.5	25
12	Brentford	18	7	3	8	+4	-3.9	24
13	Everton	18	5	6	7	-6	-4.9	21
14	Wolves	18	6	3	9	-8	-8.0	21
15	West Ham	18	5	5	8	-7	-3.4	20
16	Man United	18	4	6	8	-4	-5.3	18
17	Tottenham	19	5	2	12	-1	-4.0	17
18	Ipswich	18	3	6	9	-14	-23.5	15
19	Leicester	18	2	4	12	-26	-22.9	10
20	Southampton	18	1	3	14	-24	-21.7	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.