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Ligue 1

Referee: B Bastien

Lille

T S S T S

3–4

Full-time

Lyon

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Lyon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,5

4,3

Scored

1,5

2,5

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 45%

48%

42%

Points per game

1,8

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

42%

58%

Both score Ø 52%

48%

55%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,4

Conceded

0,9

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

0,88 xG 2,45

44% Possession 56%

8 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 4. · Lyon 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	31	20	10	1	+47	+27.5	70
2	Monaco	32	18	7	7	+20	+10.8	61
3	Brest	32	16	9	7	+16	+7.7	57
4	Lille	31	15	10	6	+18	+13.3	55
5	Nice	31	14	9	8	+11	+13.3	51
6	Lens	32	14	7	11	+8	+3.7	49
7	Rennes	32	12	9	11	+8	+11.0	45
8	Marseille	31	11	11	9	+9	+18.4	44
9	Lyon	31	13	5	13	-9	-5.0	44
10	Montpellier	32	10	11	11	-3	+0.9	41
11	Toulouse	32	10	10	12	-3	-6.2	40
12	Reims	31	11	7	13	-7	-0.1	40
13	Strasbourg	32	9	9	14	-12	-3.0	36
14	Nantes	32	9	6	17	-20	-14.3	33
15	Le Havre	32	7	11	14	-9	-12.3	32
16	Metz	32	8	5	19	-20	-20.3	29
17	Lorient	32	6	8	18	-26	-19.8	26
18	Clermont	32	5	10	17	-28	-25.6	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lille	15	11	3	1	+21	+17.8	36
2	Paris SG	16	9	6	1	+22	+19.8	33
3	Marseille	16	9	6	1	+16	+16.3	33
4	Monaco	16	9	3	4	+12	+11.2	30
5	Brest	16	8	6	2	+11	+12.1	30
6	Lens	16	9	3	4	+9	+7.8	30
7	Nice	15	8	4	3	+10	+9.9	28
8	Rennes	16	7	3	6	+8	+12.4	24
9	Lyon	16	6	4	6	-5	+1.6	22
10	Reims	15	6	3	6	-1	+4.4	21
11	Strasbourg	16	6	3	7	-2	+2.0	21
12	Le Havre	16	6	2	8	+0	+3.0	20
13	Montpellier	16	3	9	4	-1	+7.7	18
14	Toulouse	16	3	7	6	-1	+4.9	16
15	Clermont	16	3	5	8	-12	-6.2	14
16	Lorient	16	3	4	9	-9	-6.3	13
17	Metz	16	3	3	10	-8	-3.8	12
18	Nantes	16	3	3	10	-12	-7.7	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	11	4	0	+25	+7.8	37
2	Monaco	16	9	4	3	+8	-0.4	31
3	Brest	16	8	3	5	+5	-4.4	27
4	Toulouse	16	7	3	6	-2	-11.1	24
5	Nice	16	6	5	5	+1	+3.5	23
6	Montpellier	16	7	2	7	-2	-6.7	23
7	Lyon	15	7	1	7	-4	-6.6	22
8	Rennes	16	5	6	5	+0	-1.4	21
9	Nantes	16	6	3	7	-8	-6.6	21
10	Lens	16	5	4	7	-1	-4.1	19
11	Lille	16	4	7	5	-3	-4.4	19
12	Reims	16	5	4	7	-6	-4.5	19
13	Metz	16	5	2	9	-12	-16.5	17
14	Strasbourg	16	3	6	7	-10	-5.0	15
15	Lorient	16	3	4	9	-17	-13.5	13
16	Le Havre	16	1	9	6	-9	-15.3	12
17	Marseille	15	2	5	8	-7	+2.1	11
18	Clermont	16	2	5	9	-16	-19.4	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.