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Serie A

Referee: Gianpaolo Calvarese

Napoli

U S T S T

3–1

Full-time

Lazio

U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,8

This season — Serie A · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 56%

46%

65%

Points per game

1,6

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

57%

73%

Both score Ø 67%

68%

65%

Average goals

2,9

3,2

Scored

1,6

2,1

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

56% Possession 44%

11 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 7. · Lazio 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	37	26	5	6	+35	83
2	Inter	37	23	10	4	+43	79
3	Atalanta	37	23	9	5	+52	78
4	Lazio	37	24	6	7	+39	78
5	Roma	37	20	7	10	+24	67
6	Milan	37	18	9	10	+14	63
7	Napoli	37	17	8	12	+9	59
8	Sassuolo	37	14	9	14	+7	51
9	Verona	37	12	13	12	-1	49
10	Fiorentina	37	11	13	13	+1	46
11	Parma	37	13	7	17	-2	46
12	Bologna	37	12	10	15	-13	46
13	Cagliari	37	11	12	14	-1	45
14	Udinese	37	11	9	17	-15	42
15	Sampdoria	38	12	6	20	-17	42
16	Torino	37	11	6	20	-22	39
17	Genoa	37	9	9	19	-29	36
18	Lecce	37	9	8	20	-32	35
19	Brescia	38	6	7	25	-44	25
20	Spal	37	5	5	27	-48	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	18	16	2	0	+31	50
2	Lazio	19	14	3	2	+29	45
3	Inter	19	11	6	2	+23	39
4	Atalanta	18	12	2	4	+27	38
5	Roma	19	10	4	5	+9	34
6	Verona	19	9	5	5	+4	32
7	Milan	18	8	6	4	+8	30
8	Napoli	18	9	3	6	+5	30
9	Sassuolo	18	8	3	7	+12	27
10	Cagliari	19	7	4	8	+4	25
11	Torino	19	7	4	8	-7	25
12	Udinese	19	6	6	7	-5	24
13	Parma	19	7	2	10	+2	23
14	Fiorentina	19	5	8	6	+0	23
15	Bologna	18	5	7	6	-4	22
16	Sampdoria	19	6	4	9	-5	22
17	Genoa	18	6	1	11	-10	19
18	Lecce	18	4	5	9	-10	17
19	Brescia	19	3	5	11	-13	14
20	Spal	18	2	4	12	-22	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	19	11	7	1	+25	40
2	Inter	18	12	4	2	+20	40
3	Roma	18	10	3	5	+15	33
4	Lazio	18	10	3	5	+10	33
5	Milan	19	10	3	6	+6	33
6	Juventus	19	10	3	6	+4	33
7	Napoli	19	8	5	6	+4	29
8	Sassuolo	19	6	6	7	-5	24
9	Bologna	19	7	3	9	-9	24
10	Fiorentina	18	6	5	7	+1	23
11	Parma	18	6	5	7	-4	23
12	Cagliari	18	4	8	6	-5	20
13	Sampdoria	19	6	2	11	-12	20
14	Udinese	18	5	3	10	-10	18
15	Lecce	19	5	3	11	-22	18
16	Verona	18	3	8	7	-5	17
17	Genoa	19	3	8	8	-19	17
18	Torino	18	4	2	12	-15	14
19	Brescia	19	3	2	14	-31	11
20	Spal	19	3	1	15	-26	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.