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Champions League
Referee: S Vincic
Real Madrid
S S S S T
2–1
Full-time
Benfica
U S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Benfica
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,3
2,7
Scored
2,0
1,8
Conceded
1,3
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 9/13 matches
Win Ø 57%
67%
46%
Points per game
2,0
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 45%
67%
23%
Both score Ø 36%
56%
15%
Average goals
3,8
2,2
Scored
2,4
1,2
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,1
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,98 xG 1,64
56% Possession 44%
14 Shots 12
4 Shots on target 4
4 Blocked shots 5
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 7
2 Offside 0
16 Free kicks against 10
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

17. Feb -26 Benfica – Real Madrid 0–1 28. Jan -26 Benfica – Real Madrid 4–2

Match report

Real Madrid Benfica
14′
⚽ Rafa Silva 0–1
1–1 A. Tchouameni ⚽
F. Valverde
16′
Arda Güler ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
34′
35′
🟨 Richard Ríos
Half-time 1–1
51′
🟨 Nicolás Otamendi
Raúl Asencio 🟨
57′
D. Alaba 🔁
↦ E. Camavinga
77′
F. Mastantuono 🔁
↦ R. Asencio
77′
2–1 Vinicius Junior ⚽
F. Valverde
80′
C. Palacios 🔁
↦ A. Guler
84′
T. Pitarch 🔁
↦ G. Garcia
84′
85′
🔁 E. Barrenechea
↦ F. Aursnes
85′
🔁 F. Ivanovic
↦ A. Schjelderup
F. Garcia 🔁
↦ A. Carreras
91′
91′
🔁 S. Lopes Cabral
↦ L. Barreiro
César Palacios 🟨
96′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Real Madrid

4-4-2
1 T. Courtois G
12 T. Alexander-Arnold D
17 R. Asencio D
22 A. Rudiger D
18 A. Carreras D
8 F. Valverde M
15 A. Guler M
14 A. Tchouameni M
6 E. Camavinga M
16 G. Garcia F
7 Vinicius Junior F
Bench (12)
13 A. Lunin
26 Fran
2 D. Carvajal
4 D. Alaba
20 F. Garcia
21 B. Diaz
23 F. Mendy
28 J. Cestero Sancho
30 F. Mastantuono
37 M. A. Moran
38 C. Palacios
45 T. Pitarch

Coach: Alvaro Arbeloa

Benfica

4-2-3-1
1 A. Trubin G
17 A. Dedic D
44 T. Araujo D
30 N. Otamendi D
26 S. Dahl D
18 L. Barreiro M
8 F. Aursnes M
20 R. Rios M
27 Rafa Silva M
21 A. Schjelderup M
14 V. Pavlidis F
Bench (12)
24 S. Soares
50 D. Ferreira
4 A. Silva
5 E. Barrenechea
6 A. Bah
9 F. Ivanovic
10 G. Sudakov
11 D. Lukebakio
15 S. Lopes Cabral
16 Manu
62 J. Neto
72 Anisio

Coach: Jose Mourinho

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Vincic · 42 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.