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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Hernandez

Girona

S S S S U

4–3

Full-time

Ath Madrid

S S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Girona Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,8

2,5

Scored

2,7

1,3

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 73%

78%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,5

3,1

Scored

2,3

2,0

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–2

2,42 xG 2,29

51% Possession 49%

17 Shots 18

9 Shots on target 12

3 Blocked shots 2

9 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 8

0 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Girona 2. · Ath Madrid 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	19	15	3	1	+29	+15.5	48
2	Girona	18	14	3	1	+21	+8.8	45
3	Ath Madrid	18	12	2	4	+17	+10.7	38
4	Barcelona	18	11	5	2	+13	+22.6	38
5	Ath Bilbao	18	10	5	3	+15	+15.1	35
6	Sociedad	19	8	8	3	+11	+1.7	32
7	Betis	19	6	10	3	+1	-1.5	28
8	Getafe	19	6	8	5	-1	-4.4	26
9	Valencia	19	7	5	7	-1	-0.6	26
10	Las Palmas	18	7	4	7	+0	-9.1	25
11	Vallecano	19	5	8	6	-6	-3.6	23
12	Osasuna	18	5	4	9	-8	-4.9	19
13	Villarreal	19	5	4	10	-11	-7.5	19
14	Mallorca	19	3	9	7	-6	-4.0	18
15	Alaves	19	4	5	10	-10	+1.0	17
16	Sevilla	18	3	7	8	-2	-7.1	16
17	Celta	19	3	7	9	-9	-1.0	16
18	Cadiz	19	2	9	8	-12	-12.4	15
19	Granada	19	2	5	12	-18	-10.9	11
20	Almeria	18	0	5	13	-23	-8.4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	10	9	1	0	+12	+10.8	28
2	Real Madrid	9	8	1	0	+18	+13.4	25
3	Barcelona	10	8	0	2	+10	+12.2	24
4	Ath Bilbao	10	7	2	1	+14	+14.0	23
5	Girona	9	7	1	1	+11	+4.1	22
6	Betis	9	5	4	0	+8	+6.1	19
7	Sociedad	10	5	4	1	+7	+0.6	19
8	Getafe	9	5	3	1	+3	+0.0	18
9	Valencia	9	5	2	2	+7	+3.8	17
10	Las Palmas	8	4	3	1	+4	-0.9	15
11	Alaves	9	4	1	4	-1	+5.0	13
12	Mallorca	9	2	6	1	+1	-1.7	12
13	Cadiz	9	2	5	2	-1	+2.1	11
14	Sevilla	9	2	4	3	+0	-1.9	10
15	Villarreal	10	3	1	6	-4	+0.9	10
16	Granada	10	2	4	4	-5	-2.4	10
17	Celta	10	2	4	4	-5	+5.0	10
18	Osasuna	9	2	3	4	-4	-0.7	9
19	Vallecano	9	1	5	3	-7	-3.5	8
20	Almeria	9	0	4	5	-8	-0.1	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	10	7	2	1	+11	+2.1	23
2	Girona	9	7	2	0	+10	+4.8	23
3	Vallecano	10	4	3	3	+1	-0.1	15
4	Barcelona	8	3	5	0	+3	+10.3	14
5	Sociedad	9	3	4	2	+4	+1.1	13
6	Ath Bilbao	8	3	3	2	+1	+1.1	12
7	Ath Madrid	8	3	1	4	+5	-0.1	10
8	Osasuna	9	3	1	5	-4	-4.2	10
9	Las Palmas	10	3	1	6	-4	-8.2	10
10	Villarreal	9	2	3	4	-7	-8.4	9
11	Betis	10	1	6	3	-7	-7.6	9
12	Valencia	10	2	3	5	-8	-4.4	9
13	Getafe	10	1	5	4	-4	-4.5	8
14	Sevilla	9	1	3	5	-2	-5.2	6
15	Celta	9	1	3	5	-4	-5.9	6
16	Mallorca	10	1	3	6	-7	-2.3	6
17	Alaves	10	0	4	6	-9	-4.1	4
18	Cadiz	10	0	4	6	-11	-14.5	4
19	Granada	9	0	1	8	-13	-8.5	1
20	Almeria	9	0	1	8	-15	-8.3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.