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La Liga

Referee: Javier Alberola

Sevilla

S S S S T

3–2

Full-time

Espanol

T T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sevilla Espanol

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 28%

34%

22%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

47%

59%

Both score Ø 66%

59%

72%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

2,68 xG 1,01

64% Possession 36%

18 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 0

5 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sevilla 12. · Espanol 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	33	26	4	3	+49	+15.6	82
2	Ath Madrid	33	21	6	6	+34	+15.8	69
3	Real Madrid	33	21	5	7	+37	+17.5	68
4	Sociedad	33	18	7	8	+14	+4.4	61
5	Villarreal	33	16	6	11	+13	+9.4	54
6	Betis	32	14	7	11	+2	+0.8	49
7	Ath Bilbao	32	13	8	11	+11	+3.2	47
8	Girona	32	12	8	12	+5	-3.8	44
9	Osasuna	33	12	8	13	-6	-11.5	44
10	Vallecano	32	11	10	11	-3	-4.6	43
11	Mallorca	32	11	8	13	-4	-3.9	41
12	Sevilla	32	11	8	13	-9	+3.7	41
13	Celta	33	10	9	14	-8	-1.9	39
14	Almeria	33	10	6	17	-16	-7.4	36
15	Cadiz	33	8	11	14	-23	-6.0	35
16	Valladolid	32	10	5	17	-26	-12.2	35
17	Valencia	33	9	7	17	-4	-2.2	34
18	Getafe	33	8	10	15	-12	-4.0	34
19	Espanol	32	7	10	15	-15	-5.3	31
20	Elche	33	3	7	23	-39	-7.7	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	14	3	0	+31	+11.6	45
2	Real Madrid	16	11	4	1	+26	+15.1	37
3	Ath Madrid	17	11	3	3	+22	+13.6	36
4	Villarreal	16	10	2	4	+12	+9.4	32
5	Sociedad	16	9	4	3	+8	+6.0	31
6	Girona	16	9	3	4	+10	+2.4	30
7	Almeria	17	9	2	6	+4	+0.4	29
8	Betis	16	8	4	4	+7	+1.2	28
9	Vallecano	16	7	5	4	+5	-1.0	26
10	Mallorca	16	7	5	4	+5	+1.8	26
11	Valencia	17	7	4	6	+7	+4.0	25
12	Osasuna	16	8	1	7	-2	-3.5	25
13	Ath Bilbao	16	7	3	6	+8	-0.5	24
14	Valladolid	16	7	3	6	-3	-0.8	24
15	Celta	16	6	5	5	+5	+3.2	23
16	Getafe	17	6	5	6	+0	+0.7	23
17	Sevilla	16	6	4	6	-1	+8.8	22
18	Cadiz	17	5	6	6	-7	-0.8	21
19	Espanol	16	4	5	7	-6	+2.4	17
20	Elche	16	2	4	10	-12	+2.0	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	12	1	3	+18	+4.0	37
2	Ath Madrid	16	10	3	3	+12	+2.2	33
3	Real Madrid	17	10	1	6	+11	+2.4	31
4	Sociedad	17	9	3	5	+6	-1.6	30
5	Ath Bilbao	16	6	5	5	+3	+3.7	23
6	Villarreal	17	6	4	7	+1	-0.0	22
7	Betis	16	6	3	7	-5	-0.3	21
8	Osasuna	17	4	7	6	-4	-8.1	19
9	Sevilla	16	5	4	7	-8	-5.2	19
10	Vallecano	16	4	5	7	-8	-3.6	17
11	Celta	17	4	4	9	-13	-5.1	16
12	Mallorca	16	4	3	9	-9	-5.6	15
13	Girona	16	3	5	8	-5	-6.2	14
14	Espanol	16	3	5	8	-9	-7.7	14
15	Cadiz	16	3	5	8	-16	-5.2	14
16	Getafe	16	2	5	9	-12	-4.8	11
17	Valladolid	16	3	2	11	-23	-11.4	11
18	Valencia	16	2	3	11	-11	-6.2	9
19	Almeria	16	1	4	11	-20	-7.8	7
20	Elche	17	1	3	13	-27	-9.6	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.