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Bundesliga
Referee: M Fritz
FC Koln
S T T U U
0–1
Full-time
Bayern Munich
S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

FC Koln Bayern Munich
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
17%
83%
Points per game
0,8
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
67%
100%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,7
4,7
Scored
1,2
3,7
Conceded
2,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+2,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Bundesliga · 11/11 matches
Win Ø 46%
9%
82%
Points per game
0,5
2,6
Over 2.5 Ø 78%
55%
100%
Both score Ø 60%
64%
55%
Average goals
2,9
4,6
Scored
0,8
3,8
Conceded
2,1
0,8
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+3,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,21 xG 3,62
31% Possession 69%
6 Shots 19
2 Shots on target 5
3 Blocked shots 8
3 Goalkeeper saves 1
3 Corners 12
1 Offside 1
6 Free kicks against 4
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match FC Koln 17. · Bayern Munich 2.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Leverkusen 11 10 1 0 +24 +12.0 31
2 Bayern Munich 11 9 2 0 +33 +24.5 29
3 Stuttgart 11 8 0 3 +15 +16.0 24
4 RB Leipzig 11 7 2 2 +18 +5.5 23
5 Dortmund 11 6 3 2 +4 +0.8 21
6 Hoffenheim 11 6 1 4 +3 -0.9 19
7 Ein Frankfurt 11 4 6 1 +6 +1.7 18
8 Freiburg 11 4 2 5 -8 -1.5 14
9 M'gladbach 11 3 4 4 +0 -0.2 13
10 Augsburg 11 3 4 4 -3 +0.7 13
11 Wolfsburg 11 4 1 6 -5 -0.6 13
12 Werder Bremen 11 3 2 6 -4 -4.6 11
13 Heidenheim 11 3 1 7 -9 -13.0 10
14 Bochum 11 1 6 4 -14 -7.2 9
15 Darmstadt 11 2 2 7 -18 -11.9 8
16 Mainz 11 1 4 6 -13 -5.4 7
17 FC Koln 11 1 3 7 -14 -11.4 6
18 Union Berlin 11 2 0 9 -15 -4.4 6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

FC Koln Bayern Munich
20′
H. Kane 0–1
Half-time 0–1
52′
🟨 Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting
F. Alidou 🔁
↦ D. Ljubičić
65′
S. Tigges 🔁
↦ D. Selke
65′
L. Paqarada 🔁
↦ J. Thielmann
77′
D. Huseinbašić 🔁
↦ F. Kainz
78′
L. Waldschmidt 🔁
↦ L. Kilian
78′
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

FC Koln

3-4-1-2
1 M. Schwäbe G
15 L. Kilian D
24 J. Chabot D
4 T. Hübers D
18 R. Carstensen M
6 E. Martel M
11 F. Kainz M
37 L. Maina M
7 D. Ljubičić F
29 J. Thielmann F
27 D. Selke F
Bench (9)
40 F. Alidou
21 S. Tigges
17 L. Paqarada
8 D. Huseinbašić
9 L. Waldschmidt
44 M. Köbbing
13 M. Uth
3 D. Heintz
2 B. Schmitz

Coach: S. Baumgart

Bayern Munich

4-2-3-1
1 M. Neuer G
27 K. Laimer D
2 D. Upamecano D
3 Kim Min-Jae D
40 N. Mazraoui D
6 J. Kimmich M
8 L. Goretzka M
11 K. Coman M
13 E. Choupo-Moting M
10 L. Sané M
9 H. Kane F
Bench (9)
7 S. Gnabry
45 A. Pavlović
25 T. Müller
39 M. Tel
26 S. Ulreich
22 Raphaël Guerreiro
19 A. Davies
20 B. Sarr
41 F. Krätzig

Coach: T. Tuchel

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
10,51
U
6,77
B ✓
1,26
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,33
U2,5 ✓
3,32
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

M Fritz · 83 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,08 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.