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Bundesliga

Referee: F Willenborg

M'gladbach

T S S T U

4–1

Full-time

Union Berlin

U T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

M'gladbach Union Berlin

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,5

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,2

This season — Bundesliga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 45%

57%

32%

Points per game

1,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

68%

54%

Both score Ø 61%

68%

54%

Average goals

3,1

2,9

Scored

1,9

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

58% Possession 42%

16 Shots 13

10 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 3

4 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match M'gladbach 5. · Union Berlin 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	29	21	4	4	+58	67
2	Dortmund	28	17	6	5	+40	57
3	Leverkusen	29	17	5	7	+18	56
4	RB Leipzig	28	15	10	3	+41	55
5	M'gladbach	28	16	5	7	+19	53
6	Wolfsburg	29	11	9	9	+5	42
7	Hoffenheim	29	12	6	11	-8	42
8	Freiburg	29	10	8	11	-3	38
9	Hertha	29	10	8	11	-7	38
10	Schalke 04	29	9	10	10	-12	37
11	FC Koln	28	10	4	14	-8	34
12	Ein Frankfurt	28	9	5	14	-7	32
13	Union Berlin	28	9	4	15	-15	31
14	Augsburg	29	8	7	14	-16	31
15	Mainz	29	8	4	17	-25	28
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	29	6	9	14	-27	27
17	Werder Bremen	28	6	7	15	-29	25
18	Paderborn	28	4	7	17	-24	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	11	2	2	+35	35
2	Dortmund	14	10	3	1	+34	33
3	M'gladbach	14	9	2	3	+12	29
4	RB Leipzig	14	7	6	1	+19	27
5	Leverkusen	14	7	4	3	+9	25
6	Ein Frankfurt	14	6	4	4	+9	22
7	FC Koln	14	6	3	5	+4	21
8	Schalke 04	15	5	6	4	-4	21
9	Union Berlin	14	6	2	6	+0	20
10	Freiburg	14	6	2	6	+0	20
11	Augsburg	14	5	4	5	+2	19
12	Hoffenheim	15	6	1	8	-13	19
13	Wolfsburg	15	4	6	5	+0	18
14	Hertha	15	5	3	7	-8	18
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	14	4	4	6	-9	16
16	Mainz	15	4	2	9	-12	14
17	Paderborn	14	2	2	10	-14	8
18	Werder Bremen	13	1	3	9	-21	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	10	2	2	+23	32
2	Leverkusen	15	10	1	4	+9	31
3	RB Leipzig	14	8	4	2	+22	28
4	M'gladbach	14	7	3	4	+7	24
5	Dortmund	14	7	3	4	+6	24
6	Wolfsburg	14	7	3	4	+5	24
7	Hoffenheim	14	6	5	3	+5	23
8	Hertha	14	5	5	4	+1	20
9	Werder Bremen	15	5	4	6	-8	19
10	Freiburg	15	4	6	5	-3	18
11	Schalke 04	14	4	4	6	-8	16
12	Mainz	14	4	2	8	-13	14
13	FC Koln	14	4	1	9	-12	13
14	Augsburg	15	3	3	9	-18	12
15	Paderborn	14	2	5	7	-10	11
16	Union Berlin	14	3	2	9	-15	11
17	Fortuna Dusseldorf	15	2	5	8	-18	11
18	Ein Frankfurt	14	3	1	10	-16	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.