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Süper Lig

Referee: Y Arslan

Hatayspor

T T T U S

4–2

Full-time

Fenerbahce

U S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hatayspor Fenerbahce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

4,5

3,8

Scored

2,0

2,5

Conceded

2,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Süper Lig · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 45%

15%

74%

Points per game

0,7

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

56%

71%

Both score Ø 62%

65%

59%

Average goals

3,2

3,5

Scored

1,2

2,5

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,14 xG 2,77

53% Possession 47%

15 Shots 20

7 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 8

0 Offside 5

10 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Hatayspor 18. · Fenerbahce 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Galatasaray	35	29	5	1	+58	+38.2	92
2	Fenerbahce	34	25	6	3	+52	+43.3	81
3	Samsunspor	35	18	7	10	+13	+5.5	61
4	Besiktas	35	16	11	8	+19	+25.5	59
5	Buyuksehyr	35	16	6	13	+6	+6.5	54
6	Eyüpspor	36	15	8	13	+5	-1.4	53
7	Trabzonspor	35	12	12	11	+11	+0.3	48
8	Goztep	35	12	11	12	+8	+21.5	47
9	Kasimpasa	35	11	14	10	+0	+1.2	47
10	Konyaspor	35	13	7	15	-4	-1.3	46
11	Rizespor	35	14	4	17	-9	+5.0	46
12	Kayserispor	35	11	12	12	-11	-4.1	45
13	Gaziantep	35	12	8	15	-5	-12.8	44
14	Antalyaspor	35	12	8	15	-23	-17.7	44
15	Alanyaspor	35	11	9	15	-9	-3.2	42
16	Bodrumspor	35	9	10	16	-13	-5.0	37
17	Sivasspor	35	9	8	18	-14	-19.4	35
18	Hatayspor	34	5	8	21	-26	-32.4	23
19	Ad. Demirspor	35	3	4	28	-58	-49.7	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Galatasaray	17	14	3	0	+29	+27.8	45
2	Fenerbahce	17	13	2	2	+23	+21.3	41
3	Goztep	18	10	6	2	+20	+22.6	36
4	Trabzonspor	18	10	5	3	+18	+7.5	35
5	Besiktas	18	11	2	5	+12	+17.7	35
6	Gaziantep	18	10	4	4	+10	+0.7	34
7	Antalyaspor	17	10	4	3	+3	-2.1	34
8	Eyüpspor	18	10	3	5	+10	+4.3	33
9	Samsunspor	17	10	2	5	+10	+10.5	32
10	Konyaspor	18	9	5	4	+7	+6.2	32
11	Buyuksehyr	18	9	4	5	+11	+9.5	31
12	Kayserispor	18	8	5	5	+2	+3.4	29
13	Rizespor	17	8	4	5	+5	+13.3	28
14	Sivasspor	18	7	6	5	+7	-3.9	27
15	Alanyaspor	17	7	5	5	+3	+5.1	26
16	Kasimpasa	17	5	7	5	-1	+5.3	22
17	Bodrumspor	17	5	5	7	+0	-0.6	20
18	Hatayspor	17	3	5	9	-9	-11.6	14
19	Ad. Demirspor	17	1	2	14	-28	-15.5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Galatasaray	18	15	2	1	+29	+10.4	47
2	Fenerbahce	17	12	4	1	+29	+22.0	40
3	Samsunspor	18	8	5	5	+3	-5.0	29
4	Kasimpasa	18	6	7	5	+1	-4.1	25
5	Besiktas	17	5	9	3	+7	+7.7	24
6	Buyuksehyr	17	7	2	8	-5	-3.0	23
7	Eyüpspor	18	5	5	8	-5	-5.7	20
8	Rizespor	18	6	0	12	-14	-8.4	18
9	Bodrumspor	18	4	5	9	-13	-4.4	17
10	Alanyaspor	18	4	4	10	-12	-8.2	16
11	Kayserispor	17	3	7	7	-13	-7.6	16
12	Konyaspor	17	4	2	11	-11	-7.5	14
13	Trabzonspor	17	2	7	8	-7	-7.2	13
14	Goztep	17	2	5	10	-12	-1.1	11
15	Gaziantep	17	2	4	11	-15	-13.6	10
16	Antalyaspor	18	2	4	12	-26	-15.5	10
17	Hatayspor	17	2	3	12	-17	-20.8	9
18	Sivasspor	17	2	2	13	-21	-15.4	8
19	Ad. Demirspor	18	2	2	14	-30	-34.2	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.