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Coupe de France
Referee: J Stinat
Troyes
T S T T S
1–2
Full-time
Brest
S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Troyes Brest
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 34%
17%
50%
Average goals
2,0
3,2
Scored
1,3
1,2
Conceded
0,7
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Coupe de France · 4/2 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 38%
25%
50%
Average goals
2,3
2,0
Scored
2,0
1,5
Conceded
0,3
0,5
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

35% Possession 65%
14 Shots 12
3 Shots on target 6
8 Blocked shots 5
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
0 Corners 5
8 Offside 1
6 Free kicks against 12
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Troyes 2. · Brest 30.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Cannes 4 4 0 0 +8 12
2 Troyes 4 4 0 0 +7 12
3 Le Mans 4 3 1 0 +12 10
4 Bourgoin-Jallieu 4 3 1 0 +10 10
5 Guingamp 4 3 1 0 +9 10
6 Dives-Cabourg 4 3 1 0 +8 10
7 Thaon 4 3 1 0 +7 10
8 Dunkerque 4 3 1 0 +5 10
9 Bastia 4 3 0 1 +10 9
10 Le Puy Foot 4 3 0 1 +9 9
11 Lorient 4 3 0 1 +9 9
12 Annecy 4 2 2 0 +6 8
13 Sochaux 4 2 2 0 +4 8
14 Stade Briochin 4 2 2 0 +4 8
15 Valenciennes 4 2 2 0 +3 8
16 Thionville Lusitanos 3 2 1 0 +5 7
17 Dijon 3 2 1 0 +4 7
18 Clermont 3 2 1 0 +4 7
19 Hauts Lyonnais 3 2 1 0 +3 7
20 Haguenau 4 2 1 1 +2 7
21 Espaly-Saint-Marcel 4 2 1 1 +2 7
22 Quevilly Rouen 4 2 1 1 +2 7
23 Caen 3 2 0 1 +9 6
24 Feignies-Aulnoye 3 2 0 1 +5 6
25 Martigues 3 2 0 1 +4 6
26 Boulogne 3 2 0 1 +2 6
27 Union Saint-Jean 3 2 0 1 +2 6
28 ASS Still Mutzig 3 2 0 1 +2 6
29 Angers 2 2 0 0 +2 6
30 Brest 2 2 0 0 +2 6
31 Bordeaux 3 2 0 1 +1 6
32 Metz 3 2 0 1 +1 6
33 Drancy 3 2 0 1 +0 6
34 RC Calais 3 2 0 1 +0 6
35 RC Saint Joseph 3 2 0 1 -2 6
36 SA Mérignac 3 1 2 0 +6 5
37 Corte 3 1 2 0 +2 5
38 Red Star 2 1 1 0 +6 4
39 La Roche VF 3 1 1 1 +5 4
40 Marseille 2 1 1 0 +4 4
41 Jura Sud Foot 2 1 1 0 +4 4
42 Grenoble 3 1 1 1 +3 4
43 Bobigny 3 1 1 1 +3 4
44 Monaco 2 1 1 0 +3 4
45 Strasbourg 2 1 1 0 +3 4
46 Orleans 2 1 1 0 +3 4
47 Colmar 2 1 1 0 +3 4
48 Paris SG 2 1 1 0 +2 4
49 Amiens 3 1 1 1 +2 4
50 Reims 2 1 1 0 +2 4
51 Concarneau 2 1 1 0 +2 4
52 Pau FC 2 1 1 0 +2 4
53 Lyon 2 1 1 0 +1 4
54 Saint-Denis 3 1 1 1 +1 4
55 St-Philbert Gd Lieu 3 1 1 1 +1 4
56 Lille 2 1 1 0 +1 4
57 Toulouse 2 1 1 0 +1 4
58 Nice 2 1 1 0 +1 4
59 Beaumont Saint-Cyr 2 1 1 0 +1 4
60 Rumilly Vallières 2 1 1 0 +1 4
61 Saint-Malo 2 1 1 0 +1 4
62 Chasselay MDA 3 1 1 1 +0 4
63 Tours 3 1 1 1 +0 4
64 Marmande 3 1 1 1 -4 4
65 Nantes 2 1 0 1 +3 3
66 Rennes 2 1 0 1 +2 3
67 Mâcon 2 1 0 1 +2 3
68 Aubervilliers 2 1 0 1 +2 3
69 Rouen 2 1 0 1 +2 3
70 Versailles 2 1 0 1 +1 3
71 Aigles d'Or de Mana 1 1 0 0 +1 3
72 Neuilly sur Marne 2 1 0 1 +0 3
73 Nancy 2 1 0 1 +0 3
74 Istres 2 1 0 1 +0 3
75 Angoulême 2 1 0 1 +0 3
76 Gallia Lucciana 2 1 0 1 +0 3
77 Cluses-Scionzier 2 1 0 1 +0 3
78 Carnoux 2 1 0 1 +0 3
79 Laval 4 0 3 1 -1 3
80 Beauvais 2 1 0 1 -1 3
81 La Roche sur Yon 2 1 0 1 -1 3
82 Calais Beau-Marais 2 1 0 1 -1 3
83 Les Herbiers 2 1 0 1 -1 3
84 Chambéry 2 1 0 1 -1 3
85 Ginglin Cesson 2 1 0 1 -1 3
86 Valence FC 2 1 0 1 -1 3
87 Olympique d'Alès 2 1 0 1 -2 3
88 Saint-Colomban Locminé 2 1 0 1 -2 3
89 Olympique de Valence 2 1 0 1 -2 3
90 Couzeix-Chaptelat 2 1 0 1 -2 3
91 Monnaie 2 1 0 1 -3 3
92 Bolbec 2 1 0 1 -5 3
93 Vierzon FC 2 0 2 0 +0 2
94 USSA Vertou 2 0 2 0 +0 2
95 Hettange-Grande 1 0 1 0 +0 1
96 Colomiers 1 0 1 0 +0 1
97 Avranches 1 0 1 0 +0 1
98 TA Rennes 1 0 1 0 +0 1
99 Lens 1 0 1 0 +0 1
100 Paris FC 1 0 1 0 +0 1
101 Villefranche 1 0 1 0 +0 1
102 Fleury 91 1 0 1 0 +0 1
103 Romorantin 1 0 1 0 +0 1
104 Biesheim 1 0 1 0 +0 1
105 Saint-Omer 1 0 1 0 +0 1
106 Linas-Montlhery 1 0 1 0 +0 1
107 Saint-Pierre Milizac 1 0 1 0 +0 1
108 Montagnarde 1 0 1 0 +0 1
109 Saint-Lô Manche 1 0 1 0 +0 1
110 Porto Portugais Amiens 1 0 1 0 +0 1
111 Brétigny Foot 1 0 1 0 +0 1
112 Vitré 1 0 1 0 +0 1
113 Stade Béthunois 1 0 1 0 +0 1
114 Étoile Maritime 1 0 1 0 +0 1
115 Crépy-en-Valois 1 0 1 0 +0 1
116 Raon l'Etape 2 0 1 1 -1 1
117 Le Touquet 2 0 1 1 -1 1
118 Liancourt Clermont 2 0 1 1 -1 1
119 Diables Noirs 2 0 1 1 -2 1
120 Dinan Léhon 2 0 1 1 -3 1
121 Cesson 2 0 1 1 -3 1
122 Noyelles sous Lens 2 0 1 1 -3 1
123 Lunéville 2 0 1 1 -4 1
124 Agde 2 0 1 1 -4 1
125 Dragon 2 0 1 1 -5 1
126 Roubaix 1 0 0 1 -1 0
127 Chaumont 1 0 0 1 -1 0
128 Rodez 1 0 0 1 -1 0
129 OCPAM 1 0 0 1 -1 0
130 Pays de Cassel 1 0 0 1 -1 0
131 Vannes 1 0 0 1 -1 0
132 Saint-Cyr Collonges 1 0 0 1 -1 0
133 Ajaccio 1 0 0 1 -1 0
134 Samaritaine 1 0 0 1 -1 0
135 Vendée Fontenay 1 0 0 1 -1 0
136 Saint-Brieuc 1 0 0 1 -1 0
137 Maladrerie 1 0 0 1 -1 0
138 Auxerre 1 0 0 1 -1 0
139 Chantilly 1 0 0 1 -1 0
140 Jura Dolois 1 0 0 1 -1 0
141 Le Havre 1 0 0 1 -1 0
142 Biars-Bretenoux 1 0 0 1 -1 0
143 Marboz 1 0 0 1 -1 0
144 Blenod 1 0 0 1 -1 0
145 Marignane 1 0 0 1 -1 0
146 Arles 1 0 0 1 -1 0
147 Illkirch Graffenstaden 1 0 0 1 -1 0
148 Mérignac-Arlac 1 0 0 1 -1 0
149 Sauveteurs Brivois 1 0 0 1 -1 0
150 Lempdes 1 0 0 1 -1 0
151 Stade Beaucairois 1 0 0 1 -2 0
152 Epinal 1 0 0 1 -2 0
153 Grandvillars 1 0 0 1 -2 0
154 Sablé 1 0 0 1 -2 0
155 Les Ulis 1 0 0 1 -2 0
156 Gueugnon 1 0 0 1 -2 0
157 Canet Roussillon 1 0 0 1 -2 0
158 Bayonne 1 0 0 1 -2 0
159 Foron 1 0 0 1 -2 0
160 AC Paris 15 1 0 0 1 -2 0
161 Anduzien 1 0 0 1 -2 0
162 Fief-Gesté 1 0 0 1 -2 0
163 Sarre Union 1 0 0 1 -2 0
164 Saumur 1 0 0 1 -2 0
165 Alençon 1 0 0 1 -2 0
166 Ruffiac Malestroit 1 0 0 1 -2 0
167 Arras 1 0 0 1 -2 0
168 Comtal 1 0 0 1 -2 0
169 Grau-du-Roi 1 0 0 1 -2 0
170 Bressuire 1 0 0 1 -2 0
171 Etoile Matoury 2 0 0 2 -3 0
172 Saint-Pierroise 1 0 0 1 -3 0
173 Jeunesse Evolution 1 0 0 1 -3 0
174 Niort 1 0 0 1 -3 0
175 Houilles 1 0 0 1 -3 0
176 Paimpol 1 0 0 1 -3 0
177 Thouars 1 0 0 1 -3 0
178 FCSR Obernai 1 0 0 1 -3 0
179 Feytiat 1 0 0 1 -3 0
180 Nousseviller 1 0 0 1 -3 0
181 Boulay 1 0 0 1 -3 0
182 Avenir Mourenxois 1 0 0 1 -3 0
183 St Etienne 1 0 0 1 -4 0
184 Montpellier 1 0 0 1 -4 0
185 C' Chartres 1 0 0 1 -4 0
186 Freyming 1 0 0 1 -4 0
187 Cannet Rocheville 1 0 0 1 -4 0
188 Guéreins Genouilleux 1 0 0 1 -4 0
189 St-Just St-Rambert 1 0 0 1 -4 0
190 Valdahon Vercel 1 0 0 1 -4 0
191 ETC Anstaing Chéreng 1 0 0 1 -4 0
192 Labourse 1 0 0 1 -4 0
193 Montferrand 1 0 0 1 -4 0
194 Vesoul 1 0 0 1 -5 0
195 Serquigny Nassandres 1 0 0 1 -5 0
196 Raismes 1 0 0 1 -5 0
197 Allobroges Asafia 1 0 0 1 -5 0
198 Haubourdin 1 0 0 1 -6 0
199 St-Philbert Réorthe JA 1 0 0 1 -6 0
200 Olympique Cazaux 1 0 0 1 -6 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.