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Coupe de France

Referee: M Vernice

Pau FC

S U S T T

2–1

Full-time

Montpellier

T U U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Pau FC Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

35% Possession 65%

7 Shots 14

2 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 10

0 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 9

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Annecy	2	2	0	0	+8	6
2	Granville	2	2	0	0	+8	6
3	Vierzon FC	2	2	0	0	+8	6
4	Dunkerque	2	2	0	0	+7	6
5	Nimes	2	2	0	0	+7	6
6	Grenoble	2	2	0	0	+5	6
7	Bordeaux	2	2	0	0	+4	6
8	Chateauroux	2	2	0	0	+4	6
9	Paris FC	2	2	0	0	+4	6
10	Belfort	2	2	0	0	+4	6
11	Pau FC	2	2	0	0	+4	6
12	La Châtaigneraie	2	2	0	0	+4	6
13	Le Puy Foot	2	2	0	0	+3	6
14	Avranches	2	2	0	0	+3	6
15	Grasse	2	2	0	0	+3	6
16	Olympique St Quentin	2	2	0	0	+2	6
17	Stade Plabennec	2	2	0	0	+2	6
18	Strasbourg Koenigshoffen	2	2	0	0	+2	6
19	Metz	2	2	0	0	+2	6
20	Avoine OCC	2	2	0	0	+2	6
21	Évreux 27	3	2	0	1	-2	6
22	Amiens	2	1	1	0	+10	4
23	Les Herbiers	2	1	1	0	+5	4
24	Sochaux	2	1	1	0	+3	4
25	Aubagne	2	1	1	0	+3	4
26	Chamalières	2	1	1	0	+3	4
27	Caen	2	1	1	0	+3	4
28	Thaon	2	1	1	0	+3	4
29	Loon-Plage	2	1	1	0	+3	4
30	Valenciennes	2	1	1	0	+3	4
31	Reims Sainte-Anne	2	1	1	0	+3	4
32	Bastia	2	1	1	0	+3	4
33	Jura Sud Foot	2	1	1	0	+2	4
34	Villerupt Thil	2	1	1	0	+2	4
35	Guingamp	2	1	1	0	+2	4
36	Saint-Estève Perpignan	2	1	1	0	+2	4
37	Limonest	2	1	1	0	+2	4
38	Bellevue Nantes	2	1	1	0	+2	4
39	Reipertswiller	2	1	1	0	+1	4
40	Chambéry	2	1	1	0	+1	4
41	Pays de Cassel	2	1	1	0	+1	4
42	Linas-Montlhery	2	1	1	0	+1	4
43	Drancy	2	1	1	0	+1	4
44	Bergerac	2	1	1	0	+1	4
45	Niort	2	1	1	0	+1	4
46	Rodez	2	1	1	0	+1	4
47	Stade Pontivy	2	1	1	0	+1	4
48	La Tamponnaise	2	1	1	0	+1	4
49	Gobelins	2	1	0	1	+4	3
50	Villefranche	2	1	0	1	+3	3
51	Epinal	2	1	0	1	+3	3
52	Louhans-Cuiseaux	2	1	0	1	+2	3
53	Rumilly Vallières	2	1	0	1	+2	3
54	Thiers	2	1	0	1	+1	3
55	Châtellerault	2	1	0	1	+1	3
56	Vire	2	1	0	1	+1	3
57	Olympique Marcquois	2	1	0	1	+1	3
58	Lyon Duchere	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Colomiers	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Union Cosnoise	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	Haguenau	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	Onet-le-Château	2	1	0	1	+0	3
63	Roche Saint-Genest	2	1	0	1	+0	3
64	Boé Bon Encontre	2	1	0	1	-1	3
65	Marnaval	2	1	0	1	-1	3
66	Wasquehal	2	1	0	1	-1	3
67	Mâcon	2	1	0	1	-2	3
68	Feignies-Aulnoye	2	1	0	1	-2	3
69	Stade Béthunois	2	1	0	1	-3	3
70	Marcoussis Nozay	2	1	0	1	-5	3
71	Aiglon	2	1	0	1	-9	3
72	Alençon	2	0	2	0	+0	2
73	Hyères	2	0	2	0	+0	2
74	Oissel	2	0	2	0	+0	2
75	St-Pryvé St-Hilaire	2	0	2	0	+0	2
76	Vannes	2	0	2	0	+0	2
77	Lannion	2	0	2	0	+0	2
78	Bourges Foot 18	2	0	2	0	+0	2
79	Plouvorn	2	0	2	0	+0	2
80	Le Havre	1	0	1	0	+0	1
81	Saint-Malo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
82	Olympique d'Alès	1	0	1	0	+0	1
83	Le Mans	1	0	1	0	+0	1
84	Alberes Argelès	1	0	1	0	+0	1
85	Angoulême	1	0	1	0	+0	1
86	Poissy	1	0	1	0	+0	1
87	Laval	1	0	1	0	+0	1
88	Dijon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
89	Toulon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
90	Quevilly Rouen	1	0	1	0	+0	1
91	Concarneau	1	0	1	0	+0	1
92	Bourgoin-Jallieu	1	0	1	0	+0	1
93	Red Star	1	0	1	0	+0	1
94	Gueugnon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
95	Châteaubriant	1	0	1	0	+0	1
96	Fleury 91	1	0	1	0	+0	1
97	AC Paris 15	1	0	1	0	+0	1
98	Chambly Thelle FC	1	0	1	0	+0	1
99	Le Geldar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
100	Etoile de Morne-à-l'Eau	1	0	1	0	+0	1
101	Sporting Baie-Mahault	1	0	1	0	+0	1
102	St Etienne	1	0	1	0	+0	1
103	Prix-lès-Mézières	1	0	1	0	+0	1
104	Vitré	1	0	1	0	+0	1
105	Saint-Apollinaire	1	0	1	0	+0	1
106	Merpins	1	0	1	0	+0	1
107	Sablé	1	0	1	0	+0	1
108	Saint-Pierroise	1	0	1	0	+0	1
109	Trélissac	2	0	1	1	-1	1
110	Drapeau Fougères	2	0	1	1	-1	1
111	Orvault SF	2	0	1	1	-1	1
112	Aubervilliers	2	0	1	1	-1	1
113	Ergué-Gaberic	2	0	1	1	-1	1
114	Lège-Cap-Ferret	2	0	1	1	-3	1
115	Grand Santi	2	0	1	1	-3	1
116	Montauban TG	2	0	1	1	-4	1
117	Velay	1	0	0	1	-1	0
118	Nancy	1	0	0	1	-1	0
119	Agde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
120	Le Pays du Valois	1	0	0	1	-1	0
121	Hienghène Sport	1	0	0	1	-1	0
122	Golden Lion	1	0	0	1	-1	0
123	Feurs	1	0	0	1	-1	0
124	Savigneux Montbrison	1	0	0	1	-1	0
125	Biars-Bretenoux	1	0	0	1	-1	0
126	Chaumont	1	0	0	1	-1	0
127	Escaudain	1	0	0	1	-1	0
128	Raon l'Etape	1	0	0	1	-1	0
129	Poitiers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
130	Gallia Lucciana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
131	Mérignac-Arlac	1	0	0	1	-1	0
132	Jura Dolois	1	0	0	1	-1	0
133	Saint-Priest	1	0	0	1	-1	0
134	Grand-Quevilly	1	0	0	1	-1	0
135	Saint-Grégoire	1	0	0	1	-1	0
136	Éperlecques	1	0	0	1	-1	0
137	Cholet	1	0	0	1	-1	0
138	Chauray	1	0	0	1	-1	0
139	Gandrange	1	0	0	1	-1	0
140	NDC Angers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
141	SA Mérignac	1	0	0	1	-2	0
142	Les Ulis	1	0	0	1	-2	0
143	Vaulx	1	0	0	1	-2	0
144	Villers-lès-Nancy	1	0	0	1	-2	0
145	Saint-Doulchard	1	0	0	1	-2	0
146	Narbonne	1	0	0	1	-2	0
147	Cambrai	1	0	0	1	-2	0
148	Andrézieux	1	0	0	1	-2	0
149	Chartres-de-Bretagne	1	0	0	1	-2	0
150	Fréjus St-Raphaël	1	0	0	1	-2	0
151	Cournon	1	0	0	1	-2	0
152	Lescar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
153	Basse Goulaine	1	0	0	1	-2	0
154	Pont Saintte-Maxence	1	0	0	1	-2	0
155	Auray	1	0	0	1	-2	0
156	JA Armentières	1	0	0	1	-2	0
157	Vénissieux	1	0	0	1	-2	0
158	Bondues	1	0	0	1	-2	0
159	Geispolsheim	1	0	0	1	-3	0
160	Illzach Modenheim	1	0	0	1	-3	0
161	Téteghem	1	0	0	1	-3	0
162	Hombourg-Haut	1	0	0	1	-3	0
163	Salinieres Aigues Mortes	1	0	0	1	-3	0
164	Beauvais	1	0	0	1	-3	0
165	Sarre Union	1	0	0	1	-3	0
166	Bastia-Borgo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
167	Vénus	1	0	0	1	-3	0
168	Stade Bordelais	1	0	0	1	-3	0
169	Saint-Louis Neuweg	1	0	0	1	-3	0
170	Séné	1	0	0	1	-3	0
171	Heillecourt	1	0	0	1	-4	0
172	Havre Caucriauville	1	0	0	1	-4	0
173	Mareuil	1	0	0	1	-5	0
174	Liancourt Clermont	1	0	0	1	-5	0
175	Tarentaise	1	0	0	1	-5	0
176	Diables Noirs	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Strasbourg Koenigshoffen	2	2	0	0	+2	6
2	Chamalières	2	1	1	0	+3	4
3	Jura Sud Foot	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Villerupt Thil	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Saint-Estève Perpignan	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Bellevue Nantes	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Chambéry	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Pays de Cassel	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Amiens	1	1	0	0	+10	3
10	Annecy	1	1	0	0	+7	3
11	Granville	1	1	0	0	+6	3
12	Sochaux	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Nimes	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Rumilly Vallières	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Reims Sainte-Anne	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Le Puy Foot	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Grenoble	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Thiers	2	1	0	1	+1	3
19	Châtellerault	2	1	0	1	+1	3
20	Reipertswiller	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Olympique Marcquois	2	1	0	1	+1	3
22	Olympique St Quentin	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Linas-Montlhery	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Évreux 27	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Stade Plabennec	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	La Tamponnaise	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Haguenau	2	1	0	1	+0	3
28	Onet-le-Château	2	1	0	1	+0	3
29	Roche Saint-Genest	2	1	0	1	+0	3
30	Feignies-Aulnoye	2	1	0	1	-2	3
31	Marcoussis Nozay	2	1	0	1	-5	3
32	Alençon	2	0	2	0	+0	2
33	Oissel	2	0	2	0	+0	2
34	Bourges Foot 18	2	0	2	0	+0	2
35	Plouvorn	2	0	2	0	+0	2
36	Saint-Malo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Hyères	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Thaon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Les Herbiers	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Angoulême	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	St-Pryvé St-Hilaire	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Toulon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Aubervilliers	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Vannes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Valenciennes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Châteaubriant	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Fleury 91	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	AC Paris 15	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Chambly Thelle FC	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Le Geldar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Etoile de Morne-à-l'Eau	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	St Etienne	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Prix-lès-Mézières	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Vitré	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Merpins	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Saint-Pierroise	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	Bergerac	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	Drapeau Fougères	2	0	1	1	-1	1
59	Orvault SF	2	0	1	1	-1	1
60	Montauban TG	2	0	1	1	-4	1
61	Velay	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Agde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Lyon Duchere	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Trélissac	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Golden Lion	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Biars-Bretenoux	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Raon l'Etape	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Ergué-Gaberic	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Poitiers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Gallia Lucciana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Mérignac-Arlac	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Saint-Priest	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Saint-Grégoire	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Éperlecques	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Chauray	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Epinal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Colomiers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	NDC Angers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Les Ulis	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Saint-Doulchard	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Chartres-de-Bretagne	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Cournon	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Lescar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Pont Saintte-Maxence	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Auray	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	JA Armentières	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	Vénissieux	1	0	0	1	-2	0
88	Bondues	1	0	0	1	-2	0
89	Union Cosnoise	1	0	0	1	-2	0
90	Geispolsheim	1	0	0	1	-3	0
91	Illzach Modenheim	1	0	0	1	-3	0
92	Téteghem	1	0	0	1	-3	0
93	Boé Bon Encontre	1	0	0	1	-3	0
94	Lège-Cap-Ferret	1	0	0	1	-3	0
95	Salinieres Aigues Mortes	1	0	0	1	-3	0
96	Beauvais	1	0	0	1	-3	0
97	Sarre Union	1	0	0	1	-3	0
98	Vénus	1	0	0	1	-3	0
99	Stade Bordelais	1	0	0	1	-3	0
100	Séné	1	0	0	1	-3	0
101	Marnaval	1	0	0	1	-3	0
102	Grand Santi	1	0	0	1	-3	0
103	Vire	1	0	0	1	-3	0
104	Heillecourt	1	0	0	1	-4	0
105	Havre Caucriauville	1	0	0	1	-4	0
106	Stade Béthunois	1	0	0	1	-4	0
107	Mareuil	1	0	0	1	-5	0
108	Liancourt Clermont	1	0	0	1	-5	0
109	Tarentaise	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vierzon FC	2	2	0	0	+8	6
2	Dunkerque	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	Bordeaux	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Chateauroux	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Paris FC	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	Belfort	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Pau FC	2	2	0	0	+4	6
8	La Châtaigneraie	2	2	0	0	+4	6
9	Avranches	2	2	0	0	+3	6
10	Grasse	2	2	0	0	+3	6
11	Metz	2	2	0	0	+2	6
12	Avoine OCC	2	2	0	0	+2	6
13	Aubagne	2	1	1	0	+3	4
14	Caen	2	1	1	0	+3	4
15	Loon-Plage	2	1	1	0	+3	4
16	Bastia	2	1	1	0	+3	4
17	Guingamp	2	1	1	0	+2	4
18	Limonest	2	1	1	0	+2	4
19	Drancy	2	1	1	0	+1	4
20	Niort	2	1	1	0	+1	4
21	Rodez	2	1	1	0	+1	4
22	Stade Pontivy	2	1	1	0	+1	4
23	Les Herbiers	1	1	0	0	+5	3
24	Gobelins	2	1	0	1	+4	3
25	Epinal	1	1	0	0	+4	3
26	Vire	1	1	0	0	+4	3
27	Nimes	1	1	0	0	+4	3
28	Villefranche	2	1	0	1	+3	3
29	Grenoble	1	1	0	0	+3	3
30	Thaon	1	1	0	0	+3	3
31	Valenciennes	1	1	0	0	+3	3
32	Louhans-Cuiseaux	2	1	0	1	+2	3
33	Granville	1	1	0	0	+2	3
34	Union Cosnoise	1	1	0	0	+2	3
35	Boé Bon Encontre	1	1	0	0	+2	3
36	Marnaval	1	1	0	0	+2	3
37	Colomiers	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Annecy	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Le Puy Foot	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Bergerac	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Stade Plabennec	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Lyon Duchere	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Stade Béthunois	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Olympique St Quentin	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Wasquehal	2	1	0	1	-1	3
46	Mâcon	2	1	0	1	-2	3
47	Évreux 27	2	1	0	1	-3	3
48	Aiglon	2	1	0	1	-9	3
49	Lannion	2	0	2	0	+0	2
50	Le Havre	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Olympique d'Alès	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Le Mans	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Alberes Argelès	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Sochaux	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Trélissac	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Poissy	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	Laval	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	Dijon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
59	Quevilly Rouen	1	0	1	0	+0	1
60	Concarneau	1	0	1	0	+0	1
61	Bourgoin-Jallieu	1	0	1	0	+0	1
62	Red Star	1	0	1	0	+0	1
63	Gueugnon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
64	Reims Sainte-Anne	1	0	1	0	+0	1
65	Linas-Montlhery	1	0	1	0	+0	1
66	Amiens	1	0	1	0	+0	1
67	Grand Santi	1	0	1	0	+0	1
68	Sporting Baie-Mahault	1	0	1	0	+0	1
69	St-Pryvé St-Hilaire	1	0	1	0	+0	1
70	Reipertswiller	1	0	1	0	+0	1
71	Hyères	1	0	1	0	+0	1
72	Ergué-Gaberic	1	0	1	0	+0	1
73	Saint-Apollinaire	1	0	1	0	+0	1
74	Lège-Cap-Ferret	1	0	1	0	+0	1
75	Sablé	1	0	1	0	+0	1
76	La Tamponnaise	1	0	1	0	+0	1
77	Vannes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
78	Nancy	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Le Pays du Valois	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Hienghène Sport	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Feurs	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Savigneux Montbrison	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Chaumont	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Escaudain	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	Rumilly Vallières	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Jura Dolois	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Grand-Quevilly	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Cholet	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Gandrange	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Aubervilliers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	SA Mérignac	1	0	0	1	-2	0
92	Vaulx	1	0	0	1	-2	0
93	Villers-lès-Nancy	1	0	0	1	-2	0
94	Narbonne	1	0	0	1	-2	0
95	Cambrai	1	0	0	1	-2	0
96	Andrézieux	1	0	0	1	-2	0
97	Fréjus St-Raphaël	1	0	0	1	-2	0
98	Basse Goulaine	1	0	0	1	-2	0
99	Hombourg-Haut	1	0	0	1	-3	0
100	Bastia-Borgo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
101	Saint-Louis Neuweg	1	0	0	1	-3	0
102	Diables Noirs	1	0	0	1	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.