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League Cup

Referee: Oliver Langford

Bolton

T U S T T

3–3

Full-time

Sheffield Weds

T S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bolton Sheffield Weds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,30 xG 0,80

53% Possession 47%

10 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 0

0 Offside 5

12 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Accrington ST	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.9	6
2	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+4	+0.1	3
3	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
4	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.6	3
5	Lincoln	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.8	3
6	Grimsby	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.5	3
7	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
8	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
9	Mansfield Town	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
10	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.1	3
11	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
12	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
13	Bradford	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.7	3
14	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.3	3
15	Reading	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
16	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
17	Wigan	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
18	Port Vale	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
19	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
20	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
21	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.4	3
22	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
23	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
24	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.8	1
25	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
26	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
27	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
28	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
29	Bromley	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
30	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
31	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
32	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
33	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
34	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
35	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
36	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
37	Newport County	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.7	1
38	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
39	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
40	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
41	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
42	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
43	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
44	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
45	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
46	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
47	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
48	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
49	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
50	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
51	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
52	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
53	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
54	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
55	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
56	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
57	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
58	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
59	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
60	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Accrington ST	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.9	6
2	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
3	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.6	3
4	Grimsby	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.5	3
5	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
6	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
7	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
8	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.3	3
9	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
10	Wigan	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
11	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
12	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.8	1
13	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
14	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
15	Bromley	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
16	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
17	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
18	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
19	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
20	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
21	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
22	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
23	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
24	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
25	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
26	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
27	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
28	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
29	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
30	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+4	+0.1	3
2	Lincoln	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.8	3
3	Mansfield Town	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
4	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.1	3
5	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
6	Bradford	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.7	3
7	Reading	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
8	Port Vale	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
9	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
10	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.4	3
11	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
12	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
13	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
14	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
15	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
16	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
17	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
18	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
19	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
20	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
21	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
22	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
23	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
24	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
25	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
26	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
27	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
28	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
29	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
30	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
31	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.