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Championship

Referee: T Kirk

Birmingham

S U U S T

1–3

Full-time

Middlesbrough

S S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 34/31 matches

Win Ø 45%

38%

52%

Points per game

1,4

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

50%

52%

Both score Ø 56%

56%

55%

Average goals

2,6

2,4

Scored

1,3

1,4

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,61 xG 1,07

60% Possession 40%

11 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 2

3 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 11. · Middlesbrough 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	35	21	8	6	+34	+26.6	71
2	Millwall	34	18	8	8	+9	+8.8	62
3	Ipswich	33	17	9	7	+25	+23.3	60
4	Wrexham	35	15	12	8	+9	-1.3	57
5	Hull	32	17	6	9	+9	-17.1	57
6	Middlesbrough	31	16	8	7	+10	+11.1	56
7	Southampton	33	14	10	9	+15	+16.5	52
8	Derby	35	14	9	12	+6	-1.5	51
9	Watford	35	13	12	10	+4	+7.2	51
10	Bristol City	35	14	8	13	+4	-1.9	50
11	Birmingham	34	13	10	11	+2	+14.8	49
12	Preston	35	12	13	10	+1	-12.4	49
13	Sheffield United	35	15	3	17	+2	+12.5	48
14	Stoke	35	13	8	14	+5	-10.4	47
15	QPR	35	13	8	14	-8	+0.8	47
16	Swansea	35	13	7	15	-3	-4.5	46
17	Norwich	35	13	6	16	+3	-4.3	45
18	Charlton	35	10	11	14	-11	-13.1	41
19	Leicester	35	10	10	15	-9	-15.1	40
20	Portsmouth	34	10	9	15	-10	+0.1	39
21	Blackburn	35	10	8	17	-13	+4.2	38
22	West Brom	35	9	8	18	-18	+4.6	35
23	Oxford	35	7	11	17	-16	-11.7	32
24	Sheffield Weds	35	1	8	26	-50	-37.2	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	17	13	3	1	+23	+16.8	42
2	Ipswich	17	11	5	1	+21	+20.8	38
3	Millwall	17	10	3	4	+7	+8.3	33
4	Middlesbrough	16	9	5	2	+10	+5.8	32
5	Watford	18	9	5	4	+7	+6.6	32
6	Swansea	18	9	5	4	+7	+0.3	32
7	Birmingham	16	8	7	1	+15	+18.1	31
8	Wrexham	18	8	6	4	+5	+8.1	30
9	Hull	17	9	3	5	+3	-7.2	30
10	Southampton	16	8	5	3	+12	+10.9	29
11	Preston	18	7	6	5	+2	-3.6	27
12	Sheffield United	17	8	2	7	+8	+13.3	26
13	QPR	17	8	2	7	+3	+9.2	26
14	Stoke	17	7	4	6	+6	-0.4	25
15	Bristol City	18	7	4	7	+4	-0.5	25
16	Charlton	17	7	4	6	-1	-0.1	25
17	Derby	18	6	6	6	+0	-0.7	24
18	West Brom	17	6	6	5	-3	+9.6	24
19	Portsmouth	17	6	4	7	+1	+6.1	22
20	Leicester	17	6	4	7	-2	-1.9	22
21	Norwich	17	6	1	10	-3	+1.2	19
22	Oxford	17	4	6	7	-8	-1.9	18
23	Blackburn	18	4	5	9	-7	+6.1	17
24	Sheffield Weds	18	0	4	14	-29	-17.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	18	8	5	5	+11	+9.8	29
2	Millwall	17	8	5	4	+2	+0.5	29
3	Derby	17	8	3	6	+6	-0.8	27
4	Hull	15	8	3	4	+6	-9.9	27
5	Wrexham	17	7	6	4	+4	-9.3	27
6	Norwich	18	7	5	6	+6	-5.5	26
7	Bristol City	17	7	4	6	+0	-1.3	25
8	Middlesbrough	15	7	3	5	+0	+5.3	24
9	Southampton	17	6	5	6	+3	+5.6	23
10	Ipswich	16	6	4	6	+4	+2.5	22
11	Preston	17	5	7	5	-1	-8.8	22
12	Stoke	18	6	4	8	-1	-9.9	22
13	Sheffield United	18	7	1	10	-6	-0.8	22
14	Blackburn	17	6	3	8	-6	-1.9	21
15	QPR	18	5	6	7	-11	-8.4	21
16	Watford	17	4	7	6	-3	+0.5	19
17	Leicester	18	4	6	8	-7	-13.2	18
18	Birmingham	18	5	3	10	-13	-3.3	18
19	Portsmouth	17	4	5	8	-11	-6.0	17
20	Charlton	18	3	7	8	-10	-13.0	16
21	Oxford	18	3	5	10	-8	-9.8	14
22	Swansea	17	4	2	11	-10	-4.8	14
23	West Brom	18	3	2	13	-15	-5.0	11
24	Sheffield Weds	17	1	4	12	-21	-19.9	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.