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Championship

Referee: S Allison

Oxford

U S T T U

0–3

Full-time

Norwich

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Oxford Norwich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

1,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,5

3,3

Scored

0,5

2,7

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 26%

19%

32%

Points per game

0,9

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

48%

Both score Ø 60%

55%

65%

Average goals

2,2

2,6

Scored

0,9

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,44 xG 2,31

40% Possession 60%

7 Shots 8

1 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 4

3 Offside 4

8 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Oxford 23. · Norwich 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	31	17	8	6	+28	+24.6	59
2	Ipswich	30	15	9	6	+22	+24.6	54
3	Middlesbrough	28	16	6	6	+12	+9.9	54
4	Millwall	30	15	8	7	+5	+4.7	53
5	Hull	29	15	6	8	+8	-14.0	51
6	Wrexham	31	12	11	8	+5	-2.7	47
7	Preston	31	12	11	8	+4	-9.5	47
8	Bristol City	31	13	7	11	+5	+0.2	46
9	Derby	31	12	9	10	+6	-3.9	45
10	Birmingham	31	12	9	10	+4	+15.4	45
11	Watford	31	11	11	9	+3	+5.7	44
12	QPR	31	12	8	11	-1	+1.8	44
13	Stoke	31	12	7	12	+6	-6.8	43
14	Southampton	29	11	9	9	+7	+12.3	42
15	Swansea	31	12	6	13	+1	-3.6	42
16	Sheffield United	31	12	3	16	-1	+10.9	39
17	Leicester	31	10	8	13	-6	-12.1	38
18	Norwich	31	10	6	15	-3	-9.0	36
19	Charlton	30	9	9	12	-9	-13.2	36
20	Portsmouth	29	8	9	12	-11	-3.0	33
21	West Brom	31	9	6	16	-15	+3.8	33
22	Blackburn	31	8	8	15	-13	+2.9	32
23	Oxford	31	6	10	15	-13	-7.8	28
24	Sheffield Weds	31	1	8	22	-44	-31.2	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	15	11	3	1	+20	+14.3	36
2	Ipswich	16	10	5	1	+18	+20.1	35
3	Birmingham	15	8	6	1	+15	+17.3	30
4	Middlesbrough	14	9	3	2	+10	+4.0	30
5	Millwall	15	9	3	3	+6	+8.3	30
6	Watford	16	8	5	3	+7	+5.3	29
7	Swansea	16	8	4	4	+6	+0.7	28
8	Hull	15	8	3	4	+3	-4.7	27
9	QPR	15	8	2	5	+7	+8.5	26
10	Preston	16	7	5	4	+4	-1.4	26
11	Southampton	14	7	4	3	+7	+9.2	25
12	Bristol City	16	7	3	6	+5	+0.3	24
13	Wrexham	16	6	6	4	+2	+6.6	24
14	Sheffield United	15	7	2	6	+8	+10.8	23
15	West Brom	15	6	5	4	-1	+8.4	23
16	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+3	+4.5	22
17	Leicester	15	6	4	5	+1	+0.7	22
18	Charlton	14	6	4	4	+1	-2.3	22
19	Stoke	15	6	3	6	+5	-0.6	21
20	Derby	16	4	6	6	-4	-1.1	18
21	Norwich	15	5	1	9	-4	-0.4	16
22	Oxford	15	3	6	6	-6	+0.5	15
23	Blackburn	16	3	5	8	-7	+3.7	14
24	Sheffield Weds	16	0	4	12	-26	-14.2	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Derby	15	8	3	4	+10	-2.8	27
2	Hull	14	7	3	4	+5	-9.2	24
3	Middlesbrough	14	7	3	4	+2	+5.9	24
4	Coventry	16	6	5	5	+8	+10.3	23
5	Wrexham	15	6	5	4	+3	-9.3	23
6	Millwall	15	6	5	4	-1	-3.6	23
7	Stoke	16	6	4	6	+1	-6.2	22
8	Bristol City	15	6	4	5	+0	-0.0	22
9	Preston	15	5	6	4	+0	-8.1	21
10	Norwich	16	5	5	6	+1	-8.6	20
11	Ipswich	14	5	4	5	+4	+4.5	19
12	Blackburn	15	5	3	7	-6	-0.8	18
13	QPR	16	4	6	6	-8	-6.7	18
14	Southampton	15	4	5	6	+0	+3.0	17
15	Leicester	16	4	4	8	-7	-12.8	16
16	Sheffield United	16	5	1	10	-9	+0.2	16
17	Watford	15	3	6	6	-4	+0.4	15
18	Birmingham	16	4	3	9	-11	-1.9	15
19	Swansea	15	4	2	9	-5	-4.2	14
20	Charlton	16	3	5	8	-10	-11.0	14
21	Oxford	16	3	4	9	-7	-8.3	13
22	Portsmouth	14	2	5	7	-14	-7.5	11
23	West Brom	16	3	1	12	-14	-4.6	10
24	Sheffield Weds	15	1	4	10	-18	-17.1	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.