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Ekstraklasa
Referee: L Kuzma
5–1
Full-time
Zaglebie
S U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Pogon Szczecin Zaglebie
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,7
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
83%
33%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
3,0
2,2
Scored
1,5
1,2
Conceded
1,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ekstraklasa · 15/14 matches
Win Ø 35%
33%
36%
Points per game
1,1
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 66%
67%
64%
Both score Ø 69%
67%
71%
Average goals
3,2
3,2
Scored
1,4
1,9
Conceded
1,8
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,4
+0,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

2,83 xG 1,65
51% Possession 49%
13 Shots 16
6 Shots on target 5
4 Blocked shots 4
4 Goalkeeper saves 0
4 Corners 2
0 Offside 2
13 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Pogon Szczecin 15. · Zaglebie 9.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Gornik Zabrze 16 9 3 4 +12 -1.6 30
2 Jagiellonia 14 8 3 3 +9 -1.3 27
3 Wisla Plock 15 7 6 2 +9 +4.4 27
4 Lech Poznan 15 6 6 3 +3 +9.9 24
5 Korona Kielce 16 6 5 5 +3 -1.8 23
6 Rakow 15 7 2 6 +0 +1.6 23
7 Cracovia 15 6 4 5 +3 +3.4 22
8 Radomiak Radom 16 6 4 6 +1 -0.5 22
9 Zaglebie 14 5 6 3 +9 -1.2 21
10 Motor Lublin 15 4 7 4 -4 +0.2 19
11 Lechia Gdansk 16 5 4 7 -7 -1.5 19
12 Legia 15 4 6 5 +1 +0.8 18
13 Arka Gdynia 16 5 3 8 -15 -6.6 18
14 Widzew Lodz 16 5 2 9 -3 +3.1 17
15 Pogon Szczecin 15 5 2 8 -6 +6.4 17
16 GKS Katowice 15 5 2 8 -6 -7.6 17
17 Nieciecza 16 4 4 8 -8 -2.4 16
18 Piast Gliwice 14 3 5 6 -1 -5.3 14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Pogon Szczecin Zaglebie
1–0 D. Keramitsis
3′
Danijel Lončar 🟨
23′
Fredrik Ulvestad 🟨
25′
2–0 R. Molnar
L. Wahlqvist
38′
3–0 A. Przyborek
40′
Half-time 3–0
46′
🔁 J. Corluka
↦ L. Lucic
46′
🔁 M. Dziewiatowski
↦ F. Kocaba
46′
🔁 J. Diaz
↦ J. Sypek
49′
M. Dziewiatowski 3–1
K. Szmyt
54′
🔁 M. Wdowiak
60′
ℹ️ Kajetan Szmyt
VAR: Penalty cancelled
72′
🟨 Jasmin Burić
4–1 R. Molnar
75′
M. Juwara 🔁
↦ A. Przyborek
76′
77′
🔁 M. Kosidis
↦ I. Orlikowski
H. Ali 🔁
↦ L. Wahlqvist
84′
P. Mukairu 🔁
↦ K. Grosicki
84′
5–1 S. Greenwood
D. Loncar
85′
M. Huja 🔁
↦ D. Loncar
89′
M. Wojciechowski 🔁
↦ F. Ulvestad
89′
Full-time 5–1

Line-ups

Pogon Szczecin

4-4-2
77 V. Cojocaru G
28 L. Wahlqvist D
22 D. Loncar D
13 D. Keramitsis D
32 L. Koutris D
90 S. Greenwood M
8 F. Ulvestad M
19 M. Ndiaye M
10 A. Przyborek M
9 R. Molnar F
11 K. Grosicki F
Bench (11)
31 K. Kaminski
2 M. Huja
23 B. Mendy
15 H. Ali
6 J. Bieganski
35 M. Wojciechowski
61 K. Smolinski
14 J. Pozo
7 M. Juwara
18 P. Mukairu
20 P. Paryzek

Coach: Thomas Thomasberg

Zaglebie

5-4-1
1 J. Buric G
31 I. Orlikowski D
5 A. Lawniczak D
25 M. Nalepa D
3 R. Yakuba D
35 L. Lucic D
77 K. Szmyt M
39 F. Kocaba M
26 J. Kolan M
19 J. Sypek M
55 L. Rocha F
Bench (11)
12 R. Gikiewicz
22 A. Matysek
4 D. Michalski
6 T. Makowski
9 M. Kosidis
11 A. Wozniak
13 M. Grzybek
16 J. Corluka
17 M. Wdowiak
20 M. Dziewiatowski
27 J. Diaz

Coach: Leszek Ojrzynski

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
U
B
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

L Kuzma · 72 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.