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Championship

Referee: R Madley

Swansea

T U S U T

2–1

Full-time

Preston

T T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Preston

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,7

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 34%

27%

41%

Points per game

1,1

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

59%

64%

Both score Ø 69%

73%

64%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

1,4

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,77 xG 0,38

62% Possession 38%

10 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 3

3 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 8

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 18. · Preston 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	22	18	1	3	+28	+18.3	55
2	Ipswich	22	16	4	2	+19	+12.1	52
3	Leeds	21	11	6	4	+14	+16.2	39
4	Southampton	21	11	6	4	+7	+10.6	39
5	West Brom	21	10	6	5	+13	+3.7	36
6	Hull	22	10	6	6	+7	+6.5	36
7	Sunderland	22	10	3	9	+8	+13.1	33
8	Preston	22	9	5	8	-10	-9.0	32
9	Watford	22	8	7	7	+8	+2.7	31
10	Norwich	21	9	4	8	+1	-3.3	31
11	Blackburn	22	10	1	11	-4	-0.9	31
12	Cardiff	22	9	3	10	+1	-6.8	30
13	Middlesbrough	22	9	3	10	+0	+8.9	30
14	Bristol City	22	8	5	9	-1	+1.7	29
15	Coventry	22	6	9	7	+3	+6.3	27
16	Plymouth	22	7	5	10	-1	-10.2	26
17	Birmingham	22	7	5	10	-6	-3.9	26
18	Swansea	22	6	7	9	-1	-6.1	25
19	Stoke	22	6	5	11	-9	-1.9	23
20	Millwall	22	5	7	10	-7	-7.3	22
21	Huddersfield	22	4	10	8	-15	-11.4	22
22	QPR	22	5	5	12	-12	-8.6	20
23	Sheffield Weds	22	4	4	14	-19	-6.1	16
24	Rotherham	22	2	7	13	-24	-24.4	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ipswich	11	9	1	1	+13	+11.6	28
2	Leicester	11	9	0	2	+14	+9.0	27
3	Leeds	11	7	4	0	+12	+13.6	25
4	Plymouth	11	7	1	3	+11	-2.8	22
5	West Brom	11	6	3	2	+8	+5.1	21
6	Sunderland	11	7	0	4	+7	+7.1	21
7	Southampton	10	6	2	2	+8	+9.2	20
8	Watford	12	5	4	3	+10	+7.8	19
9	Hull	11	5	4	2	+8	+7.6	19
10	Birmingham	11	5	4	2	+5	-0.7	19
11	Cardiff	11	6	1	4	+5	-2.4	19
12	Norwich	10	6	1	3	+4	+2.7	19
13	Coventry	11	4	6	1	+5	+5.4	18
14	Bristol City	11	5	2	4	+2	+2.5	17
15	Preston	11	5	2	4	-6	-4.2	17
16	Middlesbrough	11	5	1	5	+1	+7.2	16
17	Blackburn	11	5	0	6	-4	+1.5	15
18	Stoke	11	4	2	5	-3	+1.2	14
19	Sheffield Weds	11	3	3	5	-5	+0.1	12
20	Swansea	11	2	5	4	-1	+0.2	11
21	Rotherham	11	2	5	4	-2	-7.7	11
22	Huddersfield	11	2	5	4	-8	-4.4	11
23	QPR	10	2	3	5	-6	-2.0	9
24	Millwall	11	2	3	6	-8	-3.5	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	11	9	1	1	+14	+9.3	28
2	Ipswich	11	7	3	1	+6	+0.5	24
3	Southampton	11	5	4	2	-1	+1.4	19
4	Hull	11	5	2	4	-1	-1.1	17
5	Blackburn	11	5	1	5	+0	-2.4	16
6	West Brom	10	4	3	3	+5	-1.4	15
7	Preston	11	4	3	4	-4	-4.8	15
8	Leeds	10	4	2	4	+2	+2.5	14
9	Swansea	11	4	2	5	+0	-6.3	14
10	Middlesbrough	11	4	2	5	-1	+1.8	14
11	Millwall	11	3	4	4	+1	-3.9	13
12	Sunderland	11	3	3	5	+1	+5.9	12
13	Watford	10	3	3	4	-2	-5.1	12
14	Norwich	11	3	3	5	-3	-6.0	12
15	Bristol City	11	3	3	5	-3	-0.8	12
16	Cardiff	11	3	2	6	-4	-4.4	11
17	QPR	12	3	2	7	-6	-6.6	11
18	Huddersfield	11	2	5	4	-7	-7.0	11
19	Coventry	11	2	3	6	-2	+0.8	9
20	Stoke	11	2	3	6	-6	-3.2	9
21	Birmingham	11	2	1	8	-11	-3.2	7
22	Plymouth	11	0	4	7	-12	-7.4	4
23	Sheffield Weds	11	1	1	9	-14	-6.2	4
24	Rotherham	11	0	2	9	-22	-16.6	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.