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Championship

Referee: J Linington

Millwall

S U S T S

1–1

Full-time

Burnley

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,0

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

1,0

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,3

This season — Championship · 31/32 matches

Win Ø 56%

45%

66%

Points per game

1,6

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

39%

50%

Both score Ø 48%

39%

56%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

29% Possession 71%

12 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 6

4 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 5. · Burnley 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	32	21	9	2	+36	72
2	Sheffield United	32	18	7	7	+24	61
3	Middlesbrough	32	17	6	9	+19	57
4	Watford	33	13	11	9	+4	50
5	Millwall	31	14	7	10	+7	49
6	Blackburn	32	15	4	13	-3	49
7	Sunderland	31	13	9	9	+13	48
8	Luton	30	13	9	8	+7	48
9	Norwich	32	13	7	12	+7	46
10	West Brom	32	12	9	11	+6	45
11	Swansea	32	11	9	12	-2	42
12	Hull	33	11	9	13	-9	42
13	Preston	32	11	9	12	-9	42
14	Bristol City	32	10	11	11	+1	41
15	Coventry	30	11	8	11	+1	41
16	Reading	32	12	5	15	-12	41
17	QPR	33	10	9	14	-12	39
18	Birmingham	32	10	8	14	-5	38
19	Stoke	32	10	7	15	-3	37
20	Cardiff	33	9	8	16	-11	35
21	Rotherham	32	7	12	13	-10	33
22	Huddersfield	32	8	7	17	-13	31
23	Blackpool	32	7	10	15	-15	31
24	Wigan	32	7	10	15	-21	31

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	17	12	5	0	+23	41
2	Sheffield United	16	10	3	3	+18	33
3	Middlesbrough	16	9	5	2	+13	32
4	Millwall	15	9	4	2	+13	31
5	Blackburn	15	10	1	4	+8	31
6	Reading	15	9	3	3	+7	30
7	Watford	16	8	4	4	+8	28
8	West Brom	16	7	5	4	+7	26
9	Coventry	15	7	4	4	+5	25
10	Swansea	15	7	2	6	+4	23
11	Sunderland	16	6	5	5	+4	23
12	Bristol City	17	6	5	6	+3	23
13	Norwich	16	6	4	6	+2	22
14	Hull	17	6	4	7	-5	22
15	Luton	15	5	6	4	+3	21
16	Huddersfield	16	6	3	7	+0	21
17	Rotherham	15	5	5	5	+5	20
18	Birmingham	17	5	5	7	+0	20
19	Cardiff	17	5	5	7	-3	20
20	Stoke	16	5	4	7	+2	19
21	QPR	16	5	4	7	-5	19
22	Blackpool	16	4	5	7	-4	17
23	Preston	16	3	5	8	-11	14
24	Wigan	17	3	4	10	-18	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	15	9	4	2	+13	31
2	Sheffield United	16	8	4	4	+6	28
3	Preston	16	8	4	4	+2	28
4	Luton	15	8	3	4	+4	27
5	Sunderland	15	7	4	4	+9	25
6	Middlesbrough	16	8	1	7	+6	25
7	Norwich	16	7	3	6	+5	24
8	Watford	17	5	7	5	-4	22
9	Hull	16	5	5	6	-4	20
10	QPR	17	5	5	7	-7	20
11	West Brom	16	5	4	7	-1	19
12	Swansea	17	4	7	6	-6	19
13	Bristol City	15	4	6	5	-2	18
14	Wigan	15	4	6	5	-3	18
15	Birmingham	15	5	3	7	-5	18
16	Stoke	16	5	3	8	-5	18
17	Millwall	16	5	3	8	-6	18
18	Blackburn	17	5	3	9	-11	18
19	Coventry	15	4	4	7	-4	16
20	Cardiff	16	4	3	9	-8	15
21	Blackpool	16	3	5	8	-11	14
22	Rotherham	17	2	7	8	-15	13
23	Reading	17	3	2	12	-19	11
24	Huddersfield	16	2	4	10	-13	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.