Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Castellon
Alcorcon
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–2
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Espanol
|
13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | +13 | 27 |
| 2 |
Mallorca
|
13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | +11 | 26 |
| 3 |
Leganes
|
13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | +4 | 25 |
| 4 |
Sp Gijon
|
13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +5 | 24 |
| 5 |
Almeria
|
12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +6 | 23 |
| 6 |
Vallecano
|
13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | +3 | 20 |
| 7 | Logrones | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 20 |
| 8 |
Mirandes
|
13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 19 |
| 9 |
Fuenlabrada
|
13 | 4 | 7 | 2 | +2 | 19 |
| 10 |
Lugo
|
13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | +0 | 19 |
| 11 |
Ponferradina
|
13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 19 |
| 12 |
Girona
|
12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 18 |
| 13 |
Malaga
|
13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 18 |
| 14 |
Oviedo
|
13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | +2 | 17 |
| 15 |
Las Palmas
|
13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 17 |
| 16 |
Cartagena
|
13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 15 |
| 17 |
Tenerife
|
13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 13 |
| 18 |
Castellon
|
13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 11 |
| 19 |
Sabadell
|
12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -5 | 10 |
| 20 |
Albacete
|
13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -7 | 10 |
| 21 |
Zaragoza
|
12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -5 | 8 |
| 22 |
Alcorcon
|
12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -8 | 8 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Vallecano
Castellon
Castellon
Cartagena
Oviedo
Castellon
Sp Gijon
Castellon
Castellon
Almeria
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.