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Serie B

Referee: M Marchetti

Sampdoria

S S S T U

1–0

Full-time

Sudtirol

T U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sampdoria Sudtirol

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,7

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,0

3,8

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,2

2,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 25%

28%

22%

Points per game

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

42%

Both score Ø 55%

53%

56%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

0,9

1,0

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,11 xG 0,68

53% Possession 47%

8 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 21

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sampdoria 12. · Sudtirol 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	36	23	9	4	+44	+33.5	78
2	Frosinone	36	21	12	3	+36	+12.2	75
3	Monza	36	22	9	5	+30	+16.0	75
4	Palermo	36	19	12	5	+29	+12.1	69
5	Catanzaro	36	15	14	7	+13	-0.3	59
6	Modena	36	14	10	12	+13	+7.2	52
7	Juve Stabia	36	11	17	8	+0	+0.6	50
8	Avellino	36	12	10	14	-12	-12.8	46
9	Cesena	36	12	9	15	-10	+3.6	45
10	Carrarese	36	10	13	13	-4	-7.2	43
11	Mantova	36	12	7	17	-8	+0.9	43
12	Sampdoria	36	10	11	15	-13	-2.0	41
13	Sudtirol	36	8	16	12	-9	-5.4	40
14	Padova	36	10	10	16	-12	-13.8	40
15	Virtus Entella	36	9	12	15	-14	-7.8	39
16	Empoli	36	8	13	15	-8	+2.8	37
17	Pescara	36	7	13	16	-14	-4.4	34
18	Reggiana	36	8	10	18	-20	-11.2	34
19	Bari	36	8	10	18	-25	-23.8	34
20	Spezia	36	8	9	19	-16	-0.2	33

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	18	16	0	2	+30	+19.4	48
2	Monza	18	14	3	1	+22	+12.1	45
3	Palermo	18	13	4	1	+25	+9.1	43
4	Frosinone	18	11	5	2	+22	+10.3	38
5	Catanzaro	18	9	8	1	+12	+2.2	35
6	Juve Stabia	18	8	9	1	+11	+5.2	33
7	Virtus Entella	18	8	7	3	+8	+0.6	31
8	Sampdoria	18	8	5	5	+1	+2.6	29
9	Avellino	18	8	5	5	+0	-2.4	29
10	Modena	18	8	4	6	+10	+0.8	28
11	Carrarese	18	7	7	4	+9	+4.2	28
12	Mantova	18	8	3	7	-2	+5.5	27
13	Cesena	18	6	6	6	+0	+5.3	24
14	Empoli	18	4	11	3	+6	+8.2	23
15	Bari	18	6	5	7	-4	-8.9	23
16	Padova	18	5	7	6	-2	-4.9	22
17	Reggiana	18	5	7	6	-3	-5.3	22
18	Pescara	18	5	6	7	+2	-2.4	21
19	Sudtirol	18	5	6	7	-2	-2.2	21
20	Spezia	18	5	5	8	-3	+4.0	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	18	10	7	1	+14	+2.0	37
2	Venezia	18	7	9	2	+14	+14.1	30
3	Monza	18	8	6	4	+8	+3.9	30
4	Palermo	18	6	8	4	+4	+3.0	26
5	Modena	18	6	6	6	+3	+6.4	24
6	Catanzaro	18	6	6	6	+1	-2.5	24
7	Cesena	18	6	3	9	-10	-1.6	21
8	Sudtirol	18	3	10	5	-7	-3.2	19
9	Padova	18	5	3	10	-10	-8.9	18
10	Juve Stabia	18	3	8	7	-11	-4.6	17
11	Avellino	18	4	5	9	-12	-10.4	17
12	Mantova	18	4	4	10	-6	-4.6	16
13	Carrarese	18	3	6	9	-13	-11.4	15
14	Empoli	18	4	2	12	-14	-5.4	14
15	Spezia	18	3	4	11	-13	-4.2	13
16	Pescara	18	2	7	9	-16	-2.0	13
17	Sampdoria	18	2	6	10	-14	-4.6	12
18	Reggiana	18	3	3	12	-17	-6.0	12
19	Bari	18	2	5	11	-21	-14.9	11
20	Virtus Entella	18	1	5	12	-22	-8.5	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.