Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Frosinone
Pisa
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–2
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Lecce
|
37 | 18 | 14 | 5 | +27 | 68 |
| 2 |
Monza
|
37 | 19 | 10 | 8 | +23 | 67 |
| 3 |
Cremonese
|
37 | 19 | 9 | 9 | +17 | 66 |
| 4 |
Pisa
|
37 | 17 | 13 | 7 | +12 | 64 |
| 5 |
Benevento
|
37 | 18 | 9 | 10 | +24 | 63 |
| 6 |
Brescia
|
37 | 16 | 15 | 6 | +17 | 63 |
| 7 |
Ascoli
|
37 | 18 | 8 | 11 | +7 | 62 |
| 8 |
Frosinone
|
37 | 15 | 13 | 9 | +14 | 58 |
| 9 |
Perugia
|
37 | 13 | 16 | 8 | +7 | 55 |
| 10 |
Ternana
|
37 | 15 | 9 | 13 | +0 | 54 |
| 11 |
Cittadella
|
37 | 13 | 13 | 11 | +3 | 52 |
| 12 |
Parma
|
38 | 11 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 49 |
| 13 |
Reggina
|
37 | 13 | 9 | 15 | -15 | 48 |
| 14 |
Como
|
37 | 11 | 14 | 12 | -4 | 47 |
| 15 |
Spal
|
37 | 8 | 15 | 14 | -9 | 39 |
| 16 | Alessandria | 37 | 8 | 10 | 19 | -21 | 34 |
| 17 |
Cosenza
|
37 | 7 | 11 | 19 | -24 | 32 |
| 18 |
Vicenza
|
37 | 8 | 7 | 22 | -22 | 31 |
| 19 |
Crotone
|
38 | 4 | 14 | 20 | -20 | 26 |
| 20 | Pordenone | 37 | 3 | 9 | 25 | -41 | 18 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Spal
Frosinone
Frosinone
Monza
Ternana
Frosinone
Frosinone
Cremonese
Frosinone
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.