Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Frosinone
Juve Stabia
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Benevento
|
33 | 23 | 8 | 2 | +38 | 77 |
| 2 |
Crotone
|
33 | 17 | 7 | 9 | +19 | 58 |
| 3 | Pordenone | 33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | +4 | 55 |
| 4 |
Spezia
|
33 | 15 | 8 | 10 | +13 | 53 |
| 5 |
Cittadella
|
33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | +5 | 52 |
| 6 |
Frosinone
|
33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | +5 | 51 |
| 7 |
Empoli
|
33 | 12 | 12 | 9 | +2 | 48 |
| 8 |
Chievo
|
33 | 11 | 14 | 8 | +7 | 47 |
| 9 |
Salernitana
|
33 | 13 | 8 | 12 | +3 | 47 |
| 10 |
Pisa
|
33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | +3 | 46 |
| 11 |
Virtus Entella
|
33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | -3 | 43 |
| 12 |
Perugia
|
34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | -10 | 41 |
| 13 |
Cremonese
|
33 | 10 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 40 |
| 14 |
Pescara
|
33 | 11 | 7 | 15 | -6 | 40 |
| 15 |
Venezia
|
33 | 9 | 13 | 11 | -6 | 40 |
| 16 |
Ascoli
|
33 | 11 | 6 | 16 | -7 | 39 |
| 17 |
Juve Stabia
|
33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | -13 | 37 |
| 18 |
Cosenza
|
34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | -7 | 34 |
| 19 | Trapani | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | -17 | 34 |
| 20 | Livorno | 33 | 5 | 6 | 22 | -27 | 21 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Empoli
Frosinone
Frosinone
Spezia
Chievo
Frosinone
Frosinone
Cittadella
Frosinone
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.