Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Salernitana
Cremonese
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Benevento
|
30 | 22 | 7 | 1 | +40 | 73 |
| 2 |
Crotone
|
30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | +14 | 51 |
| 3 |
Spezia
|
30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | +11 | 50 |
| 4 |
Cittadella
|
30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | +7 | 49 |
| 5 |
Frosinone
|
30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | +8 | 48 |
| 6 | Pordenone | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | +0 | 46 |
| 7 |
Salernitana
|
30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | +3 | 43 |
| 8 |
Chievo
|
30 | 10 | 12 | 8 | +5 | 42 |
| 9 |
Virtus Entella
|
30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 41 |
| 10 |
Empoli
|
30 | 10 | 11 | 9 | -2 | 41 |
| 11 |
Pisa
|
30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | +1 | 40 |
| 12 |
Perugia
|
30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | -6 | 40 |
| 13 |
Pescara
|
30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | -5 | 38 |
| 14 |
Venezia
|
30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | -6 | 36 |
| 15 |
Juve Stabia
|
30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 16 |
Cremonese
|
30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -5 | 33 |
| 17 |
Ascoli
|
30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | -9 | 32 |
| 18 |
Cosenza
|
30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | -3 | 30 |
| 19 | Trapani | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | -18 | 29 |
| 20 | Livorno | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | -23 | 21 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Virtus Entella
Salernitana
Salernitana
Pisa
Perugia
Salernitana
Salernitana
Venezia
Frosinone
Salernitana
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.