Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Niort
Le Havre
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Lens
|
19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | +15 | 40 |
| 2 |
Lorient
|
19 | 12 | 3 | 4 | +15 | 39 |
| 3 |
Troyes
|
19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | +6 | 38 |
| 4 |
Ajaccio
|
19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | +8 | 33 |
| 5 |
Valenciennes
|
19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | +4 | 30 |
| 6 |
Clermont
|
19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | +2 | 30 |
| 7 |
Le Havre
|
19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | +9 | 29 |
| 8 |
Guingamp
|
19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | +8 | 27 |
| 9 |
Sochaux
|
19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | +5 | 27 |
| 10 |
Nancy
|
19 | 5 | 12 | 2 | +4 | 27 |
| 11 |
Grenoble
|
19 | 5 | 11 | 3 | +2 | 26 |
| 12 |
Rodez
|
19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | -3 | 21 |
| 13 |
Caen
|
19 | 4 | 9 | 6 | -4 | 21 |
| 14 |
Auxerre
|
19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | +0 | 20 |
| 15 |
Le Mans
|
19 | 6 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 20 |
| 16 | Chambly | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -10 | 20 |
| 17 |
Chateauroux
|
19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | -13 | 18 |
| 18 |
Niort
|
19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -8 | 17 |
| 19 |
Paris FC
|
19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -18 | 15 |
| 20 |
Orleans
|
19 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -13 | 13 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Lens
Niort
Niort
Niort
Ajaccio
Clermont
Niort
Niort
Rodez
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.