Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Holstein Kiel
Darmstadt
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bielefeld
|
19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | +16 | 37 |
| 2 |
Stuttgart
|
19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | +9 | 34 |
| 3 |
Hamburg
|
18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | +17 | 31 |
| 4 |
Heidenheim
|
19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | +6 | 30 |
| 5 |
Regensburg
|
19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | +5 | 29 |
| 6 |
Erzgebirge Aue
|
19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | +2 | 29 |
| 7 |
Greuther Furth
|
19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | +4 | 28 |
| 8 |
Osnabruck
|
18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | +6 | 26 |
| 9 |
Sandhausen
|
18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | +1 | 24 |
| 10 |
Holstein Kiel
|
18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | -1 | 23 |
| 11 |
St Pauli
|
19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 21 |
| 12 |
Darmstadt
|
18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | -5 | 21 |
| 13 |
Hannover
|
19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | -9 | 21 |
| 14 |
Bochum
|
19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | -4 | 20 |
| 15 |
Karlsruhe
|
18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | -7 | 20 |
| 16 |
Wehen
|
19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -13 | 20 |
| 17 |
Nurnberg
|
18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | -8 | 19 |
| 18 |
Dresden
|
18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -17 | 13 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Sandhausen
Holstein Kiel
Nurnberg
Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
Osnabruck
Dresden
Holstein Kiel
Wehen
Holstein Kiel
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.