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Eliteserien

Referee: D Higraff

Fredrikstad

S S S S S

4–1

Full-time

Stromsgodset

U S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fredrikstad Stromsgodset

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,5

3,3

Scored

2,7

2,0

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eliteserien · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 50%

57%

43%

Points per game

2,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

29%

43%

Both score Ø 36%

43%

29%

Average goals

2,6

2,3

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

0,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

2,34 xG 0,97

48% Possession 52%

15 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fredrikstad 3. · Stromsgodset 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bodo/Glimt	7	6	1	0	+13	+3.2	19
2	Brann	8	5	2	1	+8	+8.4	17
3	Fredrikstad	7	4	2	1	+6	+0.6	14
4	Molde	8	4	2	2	+5	+5.8	14
5	Viking	7	3	3	1	+2	+5.2	12
6	Rosenborg	7	3	1	3	-1	-5.3	10
7	Stromsgodset	7	3	1	3	-2	-0.6	10
8	Kristiansund	7	2	3	2	-2	-1.0	9
9	KFUM Oslo	7	2	3	2	-2	+2.1	9
10	Odd	8	2	2	4	-7	-8.8	8
11	Sandefjord	6	2	1	3	+1	+1.5	7
12	Sarpsborg 08	7	2	1	4	-3	-1.8	7
13	Haugesund	7	2	1	4	-4	-2.5	7
14	Lillestrom	7	2	1	4	-6	-3.0	7
15	Ham-Kam	8	0	4	4	-4	+0.7	4
16	Tromso	6	1	0	5	-4	-4.5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Molde	5	3	1	1	+6	+6.6	10
2	Brann	4	3	0	1	+4	+5.8	9
3	Viking	4	2	2	0	+2	+2.5	8
4	Bodo/Glimt	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.4	7
5	Sandefjord	3	2	0	1	+4	+0.1	6
6	Rosenborg	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.3	6
7	Kristiansund	4	1	2	1	-1	+0.7	5
8	Stromsgodset	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.6	4
9	Fredrikstad	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.8	4
10	Tromso	4	1	0	3	-2	-0.2	3
11	Sarpsborg 08	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.1	3
12	Odd	4	0	2	2	-3	-2.9	2
13	KFUM Oslo	4	0	2	2	-5	+2.2	2
14	Ham-Kam	3	0	1	2	-2	-0.3	1
15	Lillestrom	4	0	1	3	-8	-3.2	1
16	Haugesund	3	0	0	3	-5	+1.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bodo/Glimt	4	4	0	0	+11	+2.8	12
2	Fredrikstad	4	3	1	0	+7	-0.2	10
3	Brann	4	2	2	0	+4	+2.6	8
4	KFUM Oslo	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.2	7
5	Haugesund	4	2	1	1	+1	-3.8	7
6	Lillestrom	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.2	6
7	Stromsgodset	4	2	0	2	-2	-1.3	6
8	Odd	4	2	0	2	-4	-5.9	6
9	Viking	3	1	1	1	+0	+2.7	4
10	Sarpsborg 08	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.8	4
11	Kristiansund	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.7	4
12	Molde	3	1	1	1	-1	-0.8	4
13	Rosenborg	4	1	1	2	-2	-5.6	4
14	Ham-Kam	5	0	3	2	-2	+0.9	3
15	Sandefjord	3	0	1	2	-3	+1.4	1
16	Tromso	2	0	0	2	-2	-4.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.