Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Team trends
Genk
Mechelen
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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The table before the match Genk 7. · Mechelen 5. ▾
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Oostende
|
5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +8 | 13 |
| 2 |
Anderlecht
|
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 12 |
| 3 |
Club Brugge
|
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +8 | 10 |
| 4 |
St Truiden
|
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 10 |
| 5 |
Mechelen
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 6 |
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
|
7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 7 |
Genk
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 8 |
Gent
|
4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 |
| 9 |
Beveren
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 10 |
Westerlo
|
7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 11 |
Charleroi
|
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 |
Lokeren
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 |
Waregem
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +0 | 3 |
| 14 |
Kortrijk
|
4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 |
Royal Excel Mouscron
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 16 |
Standard
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 3 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Match report
Line-ups
Genk
M. Bizot
C. Kabasele
T. Castagne
L. Bailey
Bench (7)
Mechelen
R. Wolski
Bench (7)
Odds comparison
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.