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Ligue 1
Referee: Johan Hamel
Lille
T U T T S
3–1
Full-time
St Etienne
T S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille St Etienne
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
0,7
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 34%
17%
50%
Average goals
2,3
2,8
Scored
0,8
1,0
Conceded
1,5
1,8
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-0,8
This season — Ligue 1 · 11/12 matches
Win Ø 30%
18%
42%
Points per game
0,8
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 48%
45%
50%
Both score Ø 26%
18%
33%
Average goals
2,2
2,3
Scored
0,8
1,1
Conceded
1,4
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

63% Possession 37%
12 Shots 8
5 Shots on target 3
5 Blocked shots 0
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
8 Corners 10
0 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 16
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lille 19. · St Etienne 6.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 12 10 2 0 +31 32
2 Monaco 12 9 1 2 +22 28
3 Lyon 12 7 4 1 +17 25
4 Marseille 12 7 3 2 +9 24
5 Nantes 12 7 2 3 +2 23
6 St Etienne 12 5 3 4 -2 18
7 Caen 12 6 0 6 -5 18
8 Montpellier 12 4 4 4 +1 16
9 Bordeaux 12 4 4 4 -2 16
10 Rennes 12 4 3 5 -1 15
11 Troyes 12 4 3 5 -3 15
12 Toulouse 12 4 3 5 -5 15
13 Guingamp 12 4 2 6 -8 14
14 Angers 12 2 7 3 -3 13
15 Nice 12 4 1 7 -5 13
16 Dijon 12 3 3 6 -7 12
17 Amiens 11 3 2 6 -6 11
18 Strasbourg 12 2 4 6 -10 10
19 Lille 11 2 3 6 -6 9
20 Metz 12 1 0 11 -19 3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lille St Etienne
12′
🟨 Loïc Perrin
19′
🟨 Ronaël Pierre-Gabriel
1–0 N. Pépé
A. El Ghazi
20′
Kévin Malcuit 🟨
25′
Luiz Araujo 🔁
↦ F. Bahlouli
32′
45′
J. Bamba 1–1
Half-time 1–1
60′
🔁 L. Diony
↦ K. Monnet-Paquet
E. Ponce 🔁
↦ Y. Benzia
65′
2–1 Thiago Mendes
71′
76′
🟨 Bryan Dabo
79′
🔁 A. Søderlund
↦ B. Dabo
Fodé Ballo-Touré 🟨
81′
B. Soumaré 🔁
↦ N. Pépé
82′
3–1 E. Ponce
A. El Ghazi
89′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Lille

4-2-3-1
16 M. Maignan G
2 K. Malcuit D
3 J. Alonso D
23 Thiago Mendes M
6 I. Amadou M
26 F. Bahlouli M
20 Thiago Maia M
25 F. Ballo D
10 Y. Benzia M
19 N. Pépé M
7 A. El Ghazi M
Bench (7)
11 Luiz Araujo
9 E. Ponce
33 B. Soumaré
34 B. Vérité
14 I. Faraj
5 A. Soumaoro
30 K. Koffi

Coach: M. Bielsa

St Etienne

4-4-1-1
16 S. Ruffier G
24 L. Perrin D
19 F. Pogba D
15 S. Janko D
29 R. Pierre-Gabriel D
7 B. Dabo M
5 V. Pajot M
17 O. Selnæs M
13 H. Maïga M
22 K. Monnet-Paquet M
14 J. Bamba M
Bench (7)
9 L. Diony
23 A. Søderlund
33 Kenny Rocha Santos
31 R. Souici
8 A. Dioussé
12 C. M'Bengue
30 J. Moulin

Coach: J. Sablé

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Johan Hamel · 65 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
19,0 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,34 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.