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Serie A

Referee: Paolo Valeri

Atalanta

T S U U S

2–1

Full-time

Sampdoria

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Sampdoria

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 50%

40%

60%

Points per game

1,6

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

20%

60%

Both score Ø 50%

40%

60%

Average goals

2,0

3,6

Scored

1,2

2,2

Conceded

0,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,8

This season — Serie A · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 50%

40%

60%

Points per game

1,6

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

20%

60%

Both score Ø 50%

40%

60%

Average goals

2,0

3,6

Scored

1,2

2,2

Conceded

0,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%

18 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 11. · Sampdoria 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fiorentina	6	5	0	1	+7	15
2	Inter	6	5	0	1	+2	15
3	Torino	6	4	1	1	+5	13
4	Sassuolo	6	3	3	0	+3	12
5	Lazio	6	4	0	2	-3	12
6	Roma	6	3	2	1	+6	11
7	Chievo	6	3	2	1	+6	11
8	Sampdoria	5	3	1	1	+4	10
9	Napoli	6	2	3	1	+5	9
10	Milan	6	3	0	3	-1	9
11	Atalanta	5	2	2	1	+2	8
12	Palermo	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Udinese	6	2	0	4	-3	6
14	Genoa	6	2	0	4	-3	6
15	Juventus	6	1	2	3	-1	5
16	Frosinone	6	1	1	4	-4	4
17	Empoli	6	1	1	4	-5	4
18	Verona	6	0	3	3	-4	3
19	Bologna	6	1	0	5	-6	3
20	Carpi	6	0	2	4	-9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sampdoria	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Torino	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Lazio	3	3	0	0	+5	9
4	Fiorentina	3	3	0	0	+5	9
5	Inter	4	3	0	1	+0	9
6	Napoli	3	2	1	0	+6	7
7	Roma	3	2	1	0	+5	7
8	Chievo	3	2	0	1	+4	6
9	Milan	2	2	0	0	+2	6
10	Genoa	3	2	0	1	+1	6
11	Sassuolo	3	1	2	0	+1	5
12	Atalanta	2	1	1	0	+2	4
13	Palermo	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Frosinone	3	1	0	2	-1	3
15	Bologna	3	1	0	2	-1	3
16	Verona	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Juventus	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Carpi	3	0	1	2	-2	1
19	Empoli	3	0	1	2	-3	1
20	Udinese	3	0	0	3	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sassuolo	3	2	1	0	+2	7
2	Fiorentina	3	2	0	1	+2	6
3	Inter	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Udinese	3	2	0	1	+0	6
5	Chievo	3	1	2	0	+2	5
6	Roma	3	1	1	1	+1	4
7	Torino	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Atalanta	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Juventus	3	1	0	2	+0	3
10	Palermo	3	1	0	2	-1	3
11	Empoli	3	1	0	2	-2	3
12	Milan	4	1	0	3	-3	3
13	Lazio	3	1	0	2	-8	3
14	Napoli	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Sampdoria	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Verona	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Frosinone	3	0	1	2	-3	1
18	Carpi	3	0	1	2	-7	1
19	Genoa	3	0	0	3	-4	0
20	Bologna	3	0	0	3	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.